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Emerging Market Business Cycles with Remittance Fluctuations

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  • Ceyhun Bora Durdu
  • Serdar Sayan

Abstract

This paper analyzes the implications of remittance fluctuations for various macroeconomic variables and sudden stops. The paper employs a quantitative two-sector model of a small open economy with financial frictions calibrated to Mexican and Turkish economies, two major recipients, whose remittance receipts feature opposite cyclical characteristics. We find that remittances dampen business cycles in Mexico, whereas they amplify the cycles in Turkey. Their quantitative effects in the long run, approximated by the stochastic steady state, are mild. In the short run, however, remittances have quantitatively large impacts on the economy, when the economy is borrowing-constrained. This is because agents in the economy cannot adjust their precautionary wealth to sudden tightening in credit, and hence, fluctuations in remittances get magnified through an endogenous debt-deflation mechanism. The findings suggest that procyclical (or countercyclical) remittances can play a significant deepening (or mitigating) role for sudden stops.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Palgrave Macmillan in its journal IMF Staff Papers.

Volume (Year): 57 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 303-325

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Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:57:y:2010:i:2:p:303-325

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References

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  1. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2001. "The external wealth of nations: measures of foreign assets and liabilities for industrial and developing countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 263-294, December.
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  4. Kose, M. Ayhan, 2002. "Explaining business cycles in small open economies: 'How much do world prices matter?'," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(2), pages 299-327, March.
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  19. Sayan, Serdar & Tekin-Koru, Ayca, 2007. "Remittances, Business Cycles and Poverty: The Recent Turkish Experience," MPRA Paper 6029, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bentour, El Mostafa, 2013. "Should Moroccan Officials Depend on the Workers’ Remittances to Finance the Current Account Deficit?," MPRA Paper 52290, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 May 2013.
  2. Federico Mandelman & Andrei Zlate, 2010. "Immigration, remittances and business cycles," International Finance Discussion Papers 998, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. George S. Naufal & Ismail H. Genc, . "Structural Change in MENA Remittance Flows," Economics Working Papers 07-05/2013, School of Business and Management, American University of Sharjah.
  4. Pablo A. Acosta & Emmanuel K.K. Lartey & Federico S. Mandelman, 2007. "Remittances and the Dutch disease," Working Paper 2007-08, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  5. Bettin, Giulia & Presbitero, Andrea F. & Spatafora, Nikola, 2014. "Remittances and vulnerability in developing countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6812, The World Bank.
  6. Hulya Ulku, 2010. "Remitting Behaviour of Turkish Migrants: Evidence from Household Data in Germany," Brooks World Poverty Institute Working Paper Series 11510, BWPI, The University of Manchester.
  7. Kearney, Colm, 2012. "Emerging markets research: Trends, issues and future directions," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 159-183.
  8. Timo Baas & Silvia Maja Melzer, 2012. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Remittances: A sending country perspective," Norface Discussion Paper Series 2012021, Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London.
  9. Katarzyna Budnik, 2011. "Temporary migration in theories of international mobility of labour," Bank i Kredyt, National Bank of Poland, Economic Institute, vol. 42(6), pages 7-48.
  10. Federico S. Mandelman, 2011. "Monetary and exchange rate policy under remittance fluctuations," Working Paper 2011-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  11. Hulya Ulku, 2012. "Remitting Behaviour of Turkish Migrants: Evidence from Household Data in Germany," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(14), pages 3139-3158, November.

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