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Sudden stops and output drops

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Author Info
V. V. Chari
Patrick J. Kehoe
Ellen R. McGrattan

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Abstract

We develop a positive theory of the adoption of child labor laws. Workers who compete with children in the labor market support the introduction of a child labor ban, unless their own working children provide a large fraction of family income. Since child labor income depends on family size, fertility decisions lock agents into specific political preferences, and multiple steady states can arise. The introduction of child labor laws can be triggered by skill-biased technological change that induces parents to choose smaller families. The model replicates features of the history of the U.K. in the nineteenth century, when regulations were introduced after a period of rising wage inequality, and coincided with rapidly declining fertility rates.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Staff Report with number 353.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Publication status: Published in International Economic Review> (Vol. 46, No. 2, May 2005, pp. 305-316)
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:353

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Keywords: Financial crises Industrial productivity

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  1. Pablo A. Neumeyer & Fabrizio Perri, 2004. "Business Cycles in Emerging Economies: The Role of Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 10387, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Gust, Christopher & Roldos, Jorge, 2004. "Monetary policy in a financial crisis," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 64-103, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro & Moore, John, 1997. "Credit Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(2), pages 211-48, April.
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  4. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2005. "Sudden Stops and Output Drops," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000880, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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  5. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2002. "Business cycle accounting," Working Papers 625, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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  6. S. Rao Aiyagari & Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1990. "The output, employment, and interest rate effects of government consumption," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 90-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
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  7. Lawrence J. Christiano & Christopher Gust & Jorge Roldos, 2002. "Monetary Policy in a Financial Crisis," NBER Working Papers 9005, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe & Ellen R. McGrattan, 2005. "Sudden Stops and Output Drops," Levine's Bibliography 122247000000000880, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Mark Aguiar & Guita Gopinath, 2007. "The Role of Interest Rates and Productivity Shocks in Emerging Market Fluctuations," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 445, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  3. Valerie Cerra & Sweta C. Saxena, 2005. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," Macroeconomics 0508008, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ester Faia, 2007. "Welfare Implications of Capital Account Liberalization," CEIS Research Paper 92, Tor Vergata University, CEIS. [Downloadable!]
  5. Javier Guillermo Gómez, 2006. "Capital Flows and Monetary Policy," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002097, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  6. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2006. "Lessons From the Debt-Deflation Theory of Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 11966, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ina Simonovska & Ludvig Soderling, 2008. "Business Cycle Accounting For Chile," IMF Working Papers 08/61, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  8. Fabio Braggion & Lawrence J. Christiano & Jorge Roldos, 2007. "Optimal Monetary Policy in a 'Sudden Stop'," NBER Working Papers 13254, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Michael D. Bordo & Alberto F. Cavallo & Christopher M. Meissner, 2007. "Sudden Stops: Determinants and Output Effects in the First Era of Globalization, 1880-1913," NBER Working Papers 13489, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2006. "Lessons from the Debt-Deflation Theory of Sudden Stops," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(2), pages 411-416, May.
  11. Karel Mertens, 2007. "The Role of Expectations in Sudden Stops," Economics Working Papers ECO2007/16, European University Institute. [Downloadable!]
  12. Javier Gómez Pineda, . "La Política Monetaria en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 394, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  13. Felipe Meza & Erwan Quintin, 2005. "Financial crises and total factor productivity," Center for Latin America Working Papers 0105, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. [Downloadable!]
  14. Juan Carlos Conesa & Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2007. "Modeling great depressions: the depression in Finland in the 1990s," Staff Report 401, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. [Downloadable!]
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  15. Javier Gómez Pineda, . "Capital Flows and Monetary Policy," Borradores de Economia 395, Banco de la Republica de Colombia. [Downloadable!]
  16. Keisuke Otsu, 2008. "A Neoclassical Analysis of The Korean Crisis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(2), pages 449-471, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Ellen McGrattan, 2005. "EconomicDynamics Interviews Ellen McGrattan on Business Cycle Accounting and Stock Market Valuation," EconomicDynamics Newsletter, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(2), April. [Downloadable!]
  18. Michael M. Hutchison & Ilan Noy & Lidan Wang, 2007. "Fiscal and Monetary Policies and the Cost of Sudden Stops," Working Papers 200724, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
  19. Benjamin, David M. & Meza, Felipe, . "Total Factor Productivity and Labor Reallocation: The Case of the 1997 Korea Crisis," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0701, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton. [Downloadable!]
  20. Javier Guillermo Gómez, 2006. "La Política Monetaria En Colombia," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 003054, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA. [Downloadable!]
  21. Vasco Curdia, 2007. "Monetary policy under sudden stops," Staff Reports 278, Federal Reserve Bank of New York. [Downloadable!]
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