Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Price of Nontradable Goods in Economies Prone to Sudden Stops
AbstractThe dominant view in the empirical literature on exchange rates is that the high variability of real exchange rates is due to movements in exchange-rate-adjusted prices of tradable goods. This paper shows that this dominant view does not hold in Mexican data for the periods in which the country had managed exchange rate regimes. Variance analysis of a 30-year sample of monthly data shows that movements in the price of nontradables relative to tradables account for up to 70 percent of the variability of the real exchange rate during these periods. The paper proposes a model in which this stylized fact, and the Sudden Stops that accompanied the collapse of Mexico's managed exchange rates, could result from an endogenous amplification mechanism operating via nontradables prices in economies with dollarized liabilities and credit constraints. The key feature of this mechanism is Irving Fisher's debt-deflation process. Numerical evaluation suggests that the Fisherian deflation effects on consumption, the current account, and relative prices dwarf those induced by the standard balance sheet effect typical of the Sudden Stops literature.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by LACEA - LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION in its journal JOURNAL OF LACEA ECONOMIA.
Volume (Year): (2005)
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Real effective exchange rates; Mexico; Dollarization; Price adjustments;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
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- Javier Bianchi, 2011.
"Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3400-3426, December.
- Javier Bianchi, 2009. "Overborrowing and systemic externalities in the business cycle," Working Paper 2009-24, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Bianchi, Javier, 2009. "Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle," MPRA Paper 16270, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Bianchi, Javier, 2009. "Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle," MPRA Paper 15114, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Javier Bianchi, 2010. "Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle," 2010 Meeting Papers 96, Society for Economic Dynamics.
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