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On the Production of Victory: Empirical Determinants of Battlefield Success in Modern War

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Author Info
Rotte, Ralph () (RWTH Aachen, CEPR London and IZA, Bonn)
Schmidt, Christoph M. (University of Heidelberg, CEPR London and IZA, Bonn)

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Abstract

Using a data set of historical battles from 1600 to 1973, this paper analyzes the empirical determinants of tactical success in modern war. Based on a reduced form approach we consider key elements of military theory as factors in the production of combat success, formalized in a military production function. The paper focuses on the relationship of material and non-material factors to battlefield success, and especially on the role of superior force strengths. Contrary to the emphasis on technology which can be found in the recent literature, our estimation results indicate that numerical superiority has retained its crucial role for battlefield performance throughout history. In general, human elements of warfare, like leadership, morale and surprise, have continued to be important determinants of battle outcome despite technological progress in weapons.

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Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 491.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: May 2002
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Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp491

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Related research
Keywords: battlefield success numerical superiority leadership technical progress military technology military production function

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models
D29 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Other
H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
N40 - Economic History - - Government, War, Law, and Regulation - - - General, International, or Comparative
O39 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change - - - Other

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Amemiya, Takeshi, 1981. "Qualitative Response Models: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 19(4), pages 1483-1536, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. ., ., 1997. "," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 127-127, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Troesken, Werner, 1997. "The," Journal of Law, Economics and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(1), pages 1-25, April.
  4. Veall, Michael R & Zimmermann, Klaus F, 1996. " Pseudo-R-[superscript 2] Measures for Some Common Limited Dependent Variable Models," Journal of Economic Surveys, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(3), pages 241-59, September.
  5. Fedderke, J W, 1997. "The Source of Optimality in Action," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(3), pages 339-63, May.
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  1. Helmut Bester & Kai A. Konrad, 2003. "Easy Targets and the Timing of Conflict," Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research (cege) Discussion Papers 21, Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research, University of Goettingen (Germany).. [Downloadable!]
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  2. Paul Dunne & Maria del Carmen Garcia-Alonso & Paul Levine Author Name: Ron Smith, 2004. "Managing Asymmetric Conflict," Studies in Economics 0411, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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