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Liberalização Financeira, Performance e Econômica e Estabilidade Macroeconômica no Brasil: Uma Avaliação do Período Recente

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  • João Adelino de Faria
  • Luiz Fernando de Paula
  • Manoel Carlos de Castro Pires
  • Tiago Rinaldi Meyer

Abstract

Este artigo objetiva avaliar a relação entre liberalização da conta capital, performance econômica e estabilidade macroeconômica no Brasil. Para tanto, além de uma revisão da literatura, o artigo realiza uma avaliação empírica dos efeitos da liberalização financeira no Brasil sobre um conjunto de variáveis macroeconômicas com o uso da metodologia VAR, utilizando, para tanto, dois modelos: um com um índice de jure de liberalização financeira (ILF), e outro com um índice de facto de integração financeira (IIF). Procura-se no primeiro caso avaliar a hipótese de que a liberalização financeira resulta em redução no risco país e, consequentemente, na taxa de juros doméstica; no segundo caso, avalia-se a hipótese de que a liberalização financeira tem impacto positivo sobre o crescimento econômico e a estabilidade macroeconômica,vis-à-vis a hipótese dos críticos da liberalização financeira de que esta gera efeitosinstabilizadores em países em desenvolvimento. This paper aims at analyzing the relationship between capital account liberalization,economic performance and macroeconomic stability in Brazil. For this purpose,besides a revision in the literature, the paper develops an empirical study on the effects of financial liberalization in Brazil on a set of macroeconomic variables usingtwo models: one with a de jure index of financial liberalization, and another with a defacto index of financial integration. In the first model, the study intends to evaluatethe proposal that the full convertibility of capital account in Brazil would result in the reduction of country-risk and, consequently, of the domestic interest rate. In the second one, it aims at assessing the hypothesis that financial liberalization has positive effect on economic growth and macroeconomic stability vis-à-vis the hypothesis of the critics of financial liberalization that support that it generates unstable effects on developing economies.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA in its series Discussion Papers with number 1436.

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Length: 37 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:1436

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  1. Saikkonen, Pentti & L tkepohl, Helmut, 2002. "Testing For A Unit Root In A Time Series With A Level Shift At Unknown Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(02), pages 313-348, April.
  2. Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, & Philip R. Lane, 2003. "International Financial Integration," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp03, IIIS.
  3. Eliana Cardoso & Ilan Goldfajn, 1998. "Capital Flows to Brazil: The Endogeneity of Capital Controls," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 161-202, March.
  4. Davidson, Paul, 1972. "Money and the Real World," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 82(325), pages 101-15, March.
  5. Chinn, Menzie D. & Ito, Hiro, 2006. "What matters for financial development? Capital controls, institutions, and interactions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 163-192, October.
  6. Murray Glickman, 1994. "The Concept of Information, Intractable Uncertainty, and the Current State of the "Efficient Markets" Theory: A Post Keynesian View," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 16(3), pages 325-349, April.
  7. Bent Nielsen & Soren Johansen and Rocco Mosconi, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Economics Series Working Papers 2000-W22, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  8. Johansen, Soren, 1995. "Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198774501, Octomber.
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