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Credit Expansion in Emerging Markets: Propeller of Growth?

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  • Ms. Mercedes Garcia-Escribano
  • Mr. Fei Han

Abstract

This paper explores the contribution of credit growth and the composition of credit portfolio (corporate, consumer, and housing credit) to economic growth in emerging market economies (EMs). Using cross-country panel regressions, we find significant impact of credit growth on real GDP growth, with the magnitude and transmission channel of the impact of credit on real activity depending on the specific type of credit. In particular, the results show that corporate credit shocks influence GDP growth mainly through investment, while consumer credit shocks are associated with private consumption. In addition, taking Brazil as a case study, we use a time series model to examine the role that the expansion and composition of credit played in driving real GDP growth in the past. The results of the case study are consistent with those found in the cross-country panel regressions.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Mercedes Garcia-Escribano & Mr. Fei Han, 2015. "Credit Expansion in Emerging Markets: Propeller of Growth?," IMF Working Papers 2015/212, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2015/212
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Emre Alper & Benedict Clements & Niko Hobdari & Rafel Moya Porcel, 2020. "Do interest rate controls work? Evidence from Kenya," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(3), pages 910-926, August.
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    5. Sadaf MAJEED* & Syed Faizan IFTIKHAR** & Zeeshan ATIQ***, 2019. "CREDIT ACTIVITY AND GROWTH PERFORMANCE: Evidence from Panel Data," Pakistan Journal of Applied Economics, Applied Economics Research Centre, vol. 29(1), pages 107-129.
    6. Ernst, Ekkehard & Semmler, Willi & Haider, Alexander, 2017. "Debt-deflation, financial market stress and regime change – Evidence from Europe using MRVAR," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 115-139.
    7. Arora, Vipin, 2016. "Credit and Oil Consumption," MPRA Paper 71096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Michael Funke & Rongrong Sun & Linxu Zhu, 2022. "The credit risk of Chinese households: A micro‐level assessment," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 254-276, August.
    9. Saini, Seema & Ahmad, Wasim & Bekiros, Stelios, 2021. "Understanding the credit cycle and business cycle dynamics in India," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 988-1006.
    10. Maurizio Intartaglia & Andreas Antoniades & Sambit Bhattacharyya, 2018. "Unbundled debt and economic growth in developed and developing economies: An empirical analysis," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(12), pages 3345-3358, December.
    11. Caner Bakir & Sinan Akgunay & Kerem Coban, 2021. "Why does the combination of policy entrepreneur and institutional entrepreneur roles matter for the institutionalization of policy ideas?," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 54(2), pages 397-422, June.
    12. de Moraes, Claudio Oliveira & Costa, Ágata, 2023. "Credit behavior and financial stability in an emerging economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 47(2).
    13. Vieira, Flávio Vilela & Silva, Cleomar Gomes da, 2023. "Looking for asymmetries between credit and output in the BRICS countries," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 39-52.
    14. Péter Fáykiss, Márton Nagy and Anikó Szombati, 2017. "Regionally-differentiated debt cap rules: a Hungarian perspective," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Macroprudential policy frameworks, implementation and relationships with other policies, volume 94, pages 153-178, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Jiaming Soh & Amanda Chong & Kue-Peng Chuah, 2017. "Household credit, growth and inequality in Malaysia: does the type of credit matter?," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Financial systems and the real economy, volume 91, pages 39-59, Bank for International Settlements.
    16. Miguel Angel Saldarriaga, 2017. "Credit Booms in Commodity Exporters," Working Papers 98, Peruvian Economic Association.
    17. Percival Pineda, 2017. "Financial liberalization and private sector borrowing in ASEAN 4 economies 1990–2012," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 7(2), pages 277-295, August.
    18. Engin Yilmaz & Bora Suslu, 2016. "Turkish Non-Core Bank Liabilities," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 14(1), pages 75-92.
    19. Arhan S. Ertan & Gürbüz Kıran, 2021. "Global financial environment or monetary transmission mechanism? The (special) dynamics of Turkey's external deficit after 2002," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4054-4076, July.
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