Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

A China Round of Multilateral Trade Negotiations

Contents:

Author Info

  • Aaditya Mattoo

    ()
    (Word Bank)

  • Prachi Mishra

    ()
    (International Monetary Fund)

  • Arvind Subramanian

    ()
    (Peterson Institute for International Economics)

Abstract

This paper estimates the impact of China’s exchange rate changes on exports of competitor countries in third markets, known as the “spillover effect.” Recent theory is used to develop an identification strategy in which competition between China and its developing country competitors in specific products and destinations plays a key role. The variation is used—afforded by disaggregated trade data—across exporters, importers, product, and time to estimate this spillover effect. The results show robust evidence of a statistically and quantitatively significant spillover effect. Estimates suggest that, on average, a 10 percent appreciation of China’s real exchange rate boosts a developing country’s exports of a typical 4-digit Harmonized System (HS) product category to third markets by about 1.5 to 2 percent. The magnitude of the spillover effect varies systematically with product characteristics as implied by theory.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.piie.com/publications/wp/wp12-4.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Peterson Institute for International Economics in its series Working Paper Series with number WP12-4.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: Mar 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp12-4

Contact details of provider:
Postal: 1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036-1903
Phone: 202-328-9000
Fax: 202-659-3225
Email:
Web page: http://www.piie.com
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords: exchange rates; exports; China; spillover;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Pinelopi K. Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1996. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," NBER Working Papers 5862, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson, 2007. "Disease and Development: The Effect of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(6), pages 925-985, December.
  3. David Weinstein & Christian Broda, 2004. "Globalization and the Gains from Variety," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 508, Econometric Society.
  4. Chad P. Bown, 2007. "China's WTO Entry: Antidumping, Safeguards, and Dispute Settlement," NBER Working Papers 13349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Heajin Ryoo & Robert Dekle, 2004. "Exchange Rate Fluctuations, Financing Constraints, Hedging, and Exports: Evidence from Firm Level Data," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 20, Econometric Society.
  6. Robert C. Feenstra & Shang-Jin Wei, 2010. "China's Growing Role in World Trade," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number feen07-1, May.
  7. Carsten Fink & Mart�n Molinuevo, 2008. "East Asian Free Trade Agreements in Services: Key Architectural Elements," Journal of International Economic Law, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 263-311, June.
  8. Lamin Leigh & Steven Vincent Dunaway & Xiangming Li, 2006. "How Robust Are Estimates of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates," IMF Working Papers 06/220, International Monetary Fund.
  9. Thierry Mayer & Philippe Martin & Nicolas Berman, 2010. "How do different exporters react to exchange rate changes? Theory, empirics and aggregate implications," 2010 Meeting Papers 1338, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  10. Sanghamitra Das & Mark J. Roberts & James R. Tybout, 2001. "Market entry costs, producer heterogeneity and export dynamics," Indian Statistical Institute, Planning Unit, New Delhi Discussion Papers 03-10, Indian Statistical Institute, New Delhi, India.
  11. Kristin J. Forbes, 2002. "How Do Large Depreciations Affect Firm Performance?," NBER Working Papers 9095, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Dani Rodrik, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate and Economic Growth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 39(2 (Fall)), pages 365-439.
  13. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
  14. Gordon H. Hanson & Raymond Robertson, 2010. "China and the Manufacturing Exports of Other Developing Countries," NBER Chapters, in: China's Growing Role in World Trade, pages 137-159 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Gita Gopinath & Oleg Itskhoki & Roberto Rigobon, 2010. "Currency Choice and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 304-36, March.
  16. Johnson, Robert C. & Noguera, Guillermo, 2012. "Accounting for intermediates: Production sharing and trade in value added," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 224-236.
  17. Kyle Bagwell & Robert W. Staiger, 2004. "The Economics of the World Trading System," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262524341, December.
  18. Rubinstein, Yona & Helpman, Elhanan & Melitz, Marc, 2008. "Estimating Trade Flows: Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," Scholarly Articles 3228230, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  19. Aaditya Mattoo & Francis Ng & Arvind Subramanian, 2011. "The Elephant in the "Green Room": China and the Doha Round," Policy Briefs PB11-3, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  20. Subramanian, Arvind & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2007. "The WTO promotes trade, strongly but unevenly," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 151-175, May.
  21. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
  22. Barry Eichengreen & Hui Tong, 2011. "The External Impact of China's Exchange Rate Policy: Evidence from Firm Level Data," NBER Working Papers 17593, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Wunsch-Vincent, Sacha, 2009. "Opening Markets for International Trade in Services: Countries and Sectors in Bilateral and WTO Negotiations edited by Juan A. Marchetti and Martin Roy Cambridge University Press, 2009," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(04), pages 619-622, October.
  24. Yuqing Xing, 2010. "The Yuan's Exchange Rates and Pass-through Effects on the Prices of Japanese and the US Imports," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(4), pages 531-548, December.
  25. Alan Ahearne & John Fernald & Prakash Loungani & John Schindler, 2003. "China and emerging Asia: comrades or competitors?," Working Paper Series WP-03-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  26. Barry Eichengreen & Yeongseop Rhee & Hui Tong, 2004. "The Impact of China on the Exports of Other Asian Countries," NBER Working Papers 10768, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Goldstein, Morris & Khan, Mohsin S., 1985. "Income and price effects in foreign trade," Handbook of International Economics, in: R. W. Jones & P. B. Kenen (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 20, pages 1041-1105 Elsevier.
  28. Simon Johnson & Jonathan D Ostry & Arvind Subramanian, 2010. "Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa: Benchmarking the Constraints," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 57(1), pages 119-171, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Arvind Subramanian, 2013. "Preserving the Open Global Economic System: A Strategic Blueprint for China and the United States," Policy Briefs PB13-16, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  2. Robert Wolfe, 2013. "First diagnose, then treat: what ails the Doha Round?," RSCAS Working Papers 2013/85, European University Institute.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:iie:wpaper:wp12-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peterson Institute webmaster).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.