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The Prospects for Sustained Growth in Africa: Benchmarking the Constraints

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Author Info
Simon Johnson
Jonathan D. Ostry
Arvind Subramanian

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Abstract

A dozen countries had weak institutions in 1960 and yet sustained high rates of growth subsequently. We use data on their characteristics early in the growth process to create benchmarks with which to evaluate potential constraints on sustained growth for sub-Saharan Africa. This analysis suggests that what are usually regarded as first-order problems -- broad institutions, macroeconomic stability, trade openness, education, and inequality -- may not nowbe binding constraints in Africa, although the extent of ill-health, internal conflict, and societal fractionalization do stand out as problems in contemporary Africa. A key question is to what extent Africa can rely on manufactured exports as a mode of "escape from underdevelopment," a strategy successfully deployed by almost all the benchmark countries. The benchmarking comparison specifically raises two key concerns as far as a development strategy based on expanding exports of manufactures is concerned: micro-level institutions that affect the costs of exporting, and the level of the real exchange rate -- especially the need to avoid overvaluation.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 13120.

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Date of creation: May 2007
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:13120

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
O10 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
O11 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
O43 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Institutions and Growth
O55 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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  1. Fischer, Stanley & Hernandez-Cata, Ernesto, 1998. "Africa - Is This the Turning Point?," IMF Papers on Policy Analysis and Assessments 98/6, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
  2. Jerzmanowski, Michal, 2006. "Empirics of hills, plateaus, mountains and plains: A Markov-switching approach to growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 357-385, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2005. "Do Leaders Matter? National Leadership and Growth Since World War II," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(3), pages 835-864, August.
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  5. Raghuram Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "What Undermines Aid's Impact on Growth?," IMF Working Papers 05/126, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Richard B. Freeman & David L. Lindauer, 1999. "Why Not Africa?," NBER Working Papers 6942, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Easterly, William & Levine, Ross, 1997. "Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 112(4), pages 1203-50, November.
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  8. Alesina, Alberto, et al, 2003. " Fractionalization," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 155-94, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson, 2006. "Disease and Development: The Effect of Life Expectancy on Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 12269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2006. "Competitive Rent Preservation, Reform Paralysis, and the Persistence of Underdevelopment," NBER Working Papers 12093, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  11. Rodrik, Dani & Subramanian, Arvind & Trebbi, Francesco, 2002. "Institutions Rule: The Primacy of Institutions Over Geography and Integration in Economic Development," CEPR Discussion Papers 3643, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Fearon, James D, 2003. " Ethnic and Cultural Diversity by Country," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 195-222, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. repec:rus:hseeco:123147 is not listed on IDEAS
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  15. Aaditya Mattoo & Devesh Roy & Arvind Subramanian, 2003. "The Africa Growth and Opportunity Act and its Rules of Origin: Generosity Undermined?," The World Economy, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 26(6), pages 829-851, 06. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  16. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2007. "Foreign Capital and Economic Growth," IZA Discussion Papers 3186, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
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  17. Acemoglu, Daron & Johnson, Simon & Robinson, James & Thaicharoen, Yunyong, 2003. "Institutional causes, macroeconomic symptoms: volatility, crises and growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 49-123, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  18. Stanley Fischer & Ernesto Hernández-Catá & Mohsin S. Khan, 1998. "Africa - Is This the Turning Point?," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 98/6, International Monetary Fund.
  19. Allan Timmermann, 2006. "An Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts," IMF Working Papers 06/59, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Eswar S. Prasad & Raghuram Rajan, 2008. "A Pragmatic Approach to Capital Account Liberalization," NBER Working Papers 14051, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  2. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2008. "The Real Exchange Rate, Mercantilism and the Learning by Doing Externality," NBER Working Papers 13853, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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