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The Yuan’s Exchange Rates and Pass-through Effects on the Prices of Japanese and US Imports

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  • Yuqing Xing

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

Abstract

This paper estimated the pass-through effects of yuans exchange rates on prices of the US and Japanese imports from the Peoples Republic of China (PRC). Empirical results show that, a 1% nominal appreciation of the yuan would result in a 0.23% increase in prices of the US imports in the short run and 0.47% in the long run. Japanese import prices were relatively more responsive to changes of the bilateral exchange rates between the yuan and the yen. For a 1% nominal appreciation of the yuan against the yen, Japanese import prices would be expected to rise 0.55% in the short run and 0.99%, a complete pass-through, in the long run. The high degree of pass-through effects were also found at the disaggregated sectoral level : food, raw materials, apparel, manufacturing, and machinery. However, further analysis indicated that the high pass-through effects in the case of Japan were mainly attributed to the PRCs policy to peg the yuan to the United States (US) dollar, and that the dollar is used as a dominant invoicing currency for the PRCs exports to Japan. After controlling the currency invoicing factor, I found no evidence that the yuans cumulative appreciation since July 2005 was passed on to prices of Japanese imports at either the aggregate or disaggregated levels. The estimated low pass-through effects of the yuans appreciation suggest that a moderate appreciation of the yuan would have very little impact on the PRCs trade surplus.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by East Asian Bureau of Economic Research in its series Trade Working Papers with number 22802.

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Date of creation: Jan 2010
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Handle: RePEc:eab:tradew:22802

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Related research

Keywords: exchange rates; import prices; yuan appreciation; currency policy;

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  1. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
  2. Willem Thorbecke & Gordon Smith, 2010. "How Would an Appreciation of the Renminbi and Other East Asian Currencies Affect China's Exports?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(1), pages 95-108, 02.
  3. Gita Gopinath & Oleg Itskhoki & Roberto Rigobon, 2010. "Currency Choice and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 304-36, March.
  4. Jiawen Yang, 1992. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in U.S. Manufacturing Industries," Working Papers 92-28, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  5. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1987. "Exchange Rates and Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(1), pages 93-106, March.
  6. Linda S. Goldberg & Cedric Tille, 2005. "Vehicle currency use in international trade," Staff Reports 200, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  7. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
  8. Gagnon, Joseph E. & Knetter, Michael M., 1995. "Markup adjustment and exchange rate fluctuations: evidence from panel data on automobile exports," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 289-310, April.
  9. Marston, Richard C., 1990. "Pricing to market in Japanese manufacturing," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3-4), pages 217-236, November.
  10. Robert J. Vigfusson & Nathan Sheets & Joseph Gagnon, 2007. "Exchange rate pass-through to export prices: assessing some cross-country evidence," International Finance Discussion Papers 902, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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