A double-edged sword. High interest rates in capital-control regimes
AbstractThis paper derives the relationship between central bank interest rates and exchange rates under a capital control regime. Higher interest rate may strengthen the currency by reducing consumption and imports and by inducing foreign owners of local currency assets not to sell local currency off shore. There is also an effect that goes in the opposite direction: Higher interest rates increase the flow of interest income to foreigners through the current account which makes the exchange rate fall. The historical financial crisis now under way in Iceland provides excellent testing grounds for the analysis. Overall, the experience does not suggest that cutting interest rates moderately from a very high level is likely to make a currency depreciate in a capital control regime but highlights the importance of effective enforcing of the controls.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland in its series Economics with number wp47.
Date of creation: Nov 2009
Date of revision:
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-05-29 (All new papers)
- NEP-IFN-2010-05-29 (International Finance)
- NEP-MON-2010-05-29 (Monetary Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Calvo, Guillermo A. & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Loo-Kung, Rudy, 2006.
"Relative price volatility under Sudden Stops: The relevance of balance sheet effects,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 231-254, June.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Rudy Loo-Kung, 2005. "Relative Price Volatility Under Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance Sheet Effects," NBER Working Papers 11492, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ilan Goldfajn & Poonam Gupta, 2003.
"Does Monetary Policy Stabilize the Exchange Rate Following a Currency Crisis?,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 50(1), pages 5.
- Ilan Goldfajn & Poonam Gupta, 1999. "Does Monetary Policy Stabilize the Exchange Rate Following a Currency Crisis?," IMF Working Papers 99/42, International Monetary Fund.
- Ilan Goldfajn & Poonam Gupta, 1999. "Does monetary policy stabilize the exchange rate following a currency crisis?," Textos para discussÃ£o 396, Department of Economics PUC-Rio (Brazil).
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009.
"The Aftermath of Financial Crises,"
NBER Working Papers
14656, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christopher W. Crowe & Jonathan David Ostry & Jun Il Kim & Marcos Chamon & Atish R. Ghosh, 2009. "Coping with the Crisis: Policy Options for Emerging Market Countries," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/08, International Monetary Fund.
- Akira Ariyoshi & Andrei Kirilenko & Inci Ã–tker & Bernard Laurens & Jorge IvÃ¡n Canales Kriljenko & Karl Friedrich Habermeier, 2000. "Capital Controls: Country Experiences with Their Use and Liberalization," IMF Occasional Papers 190, International Monetary Fund.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Andrea Cipollini & Panicos Demetriades, 2000.
"Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate During the Asian Crisis Identification Through Heteroscedasticity,"
Discussion Papers in Economics
00/11, Department of Economics, University of Leicester, revised Feb 2002.
- Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Cipollini, Andrea & Demetriades, Panicos O., 2005. "Monetary policy and the exchange rate during the Asian crisis: identification through heteroscedasticity," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 39-53, February.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Andrea Cipollini & Panicos Demetriades, 2003. "Monetary Policy and the Exchange Rate During the Asian Crisis: Identification Through Heteroscedasticity," CEIS Research Paper 23, Tor Vergata University, CEIS.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Central Bank of Iceland).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.