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Current account dynamics and exchange rate regimes in Central and Eastern Europe

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  • Kersti Harkmann
  • Karsten Staehr

Abstract

The paper seeks to determine the factors that drive the current account dynamics of the 11 EU members from Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Panel data models are estimated on annual data for the period 1997–2017 and both domestic pull factors and external push factors are included. The models are, as a key innovation, estimated separately for floating and fixed exchange rate regimes. The current account exhibits substantial persistence in both cases. For the floaters, the current account has been driven by domestic factors while external factors appear unimportant. For the fixers, the current account has mainly been driven by external factors, suggesting there is substantial vulnerability to external developments. The analysis underscores the importance of the exchange rate regime for the drivers of the current account balance in the CEE countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Kersti Harkmann & Karsten Staehr, 2019. "Current account dynamics and exchange rate regimes in Central and Eastern Europe," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2018-08, Bank of Estonia, revised 23 Jan 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:eea:boewps:wp2018-08
    DOI: 10.23656/25045520/082018/0160
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    Cited by:

    1. Dąbrowski, Marek A. & Wróblewska, Justyna, 2020. "Insulating property of the flexible exchange rate regime: A case of Central and Eastern European countries," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 34-49.
    2. Simeon Coleman & Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2019. "Current account and structural change in European transition economies," Working Papers 2019/08, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    3. Juan Carlos Cuestas, 2019. "The current account sustainability in Central and Eastern Europe: Has it changed?," Working Papers 2019/10, Economics Department, Universitat Jaume I, Castellón (Spain).
    4. Juan Carlos Cuestas & Mercedes Monfort, 2021. "Current account sustainability in Central and Eastern Europe: structural change and crisis," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 48(1), pages 141-153, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    current account balance; exchange rate regime; economic policies; Central and Eastern Europe;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • P33 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - International Trade, Finance, Investment, Relations, and Aid

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