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Do We Really Know That Flexible Exchange Rates Facilitate Current Account Adjustment? Some New Empirical Evidence for CEE Countries

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  • Sabine Herrmann

Abstract

This paper examines the relationship between the exchange rate regime and the pace of current account adjustment. The panel data set we refer to includes 11 catching-up countries from Central and Eastern Europe between 1994 and 2007. The exchange rate regime is measured by a continuous z-score measure of exchange rate volatility proposed by Gosh, Gulde, and Wolf (2003). Based on a basic autoregression estimation, the results indicate that a more flexible exchange rate regime significantly enhances the rate of current account adjustment.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Duncker & Humblot, Berlin in its journal Applied Economics Quarterly.

Volume (Year): 55 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 295-312

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Handle: RePEc:aeq:aeqaeq:v55_y2009_i4_q4_p295-312

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Keywords: exchange rate regime; exchange rate volatility; current account imbalances; current account adjustment; Central and Eastern Europe;

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References

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  1. Tavlas, George & Dellas, Harris & Stockman, Alan C., 2008. "The classification and performance of alternative exchange-rate systems," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 941-963, August.
  2. Fagan, Gabriel & Gaspar, Vítor, 2007. "Adjusting to the euro," Working Paper Series 0716, European Central Bank.
  3. Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2000. "Current Accounts In Debtor And Creditor Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(4), pages 1137-1166, November.
  4. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Hélène Rey, 2007. "International Financial Adjustment," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(4), pages 665-703, 08.
  5. Mussa, Michael, 1986. "Nominal exchange rate regimes and the behavior of real exchange rates: Evidence and implications," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 117-214, January.
  6. Jörg Decressin & Emil Stavrev, 2009. "Current Accounts in a Currency Union," IMF Working Papers 09/127, International Monetary Fund.
  7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2002. "The Modern History of Exchange Rate Arrangements: A Reinterpretation," NBER Working Papers 8963, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Paul De Grauwe & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "Exchange Rate Regimes and Macroeconomic Stability in Central and Eastern Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series 1182, CESifo Group Munich.
  9. Herrmann, Sabine & Jochem, Axel, 2005. "Determinants of current account developments in the central and east European EU member states - consequences for the enlargement of the euro area," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2005,32, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  10. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2004. "The revived Bretton Woods system," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 307-313.
  11. Herrmann, Sabine & Winkler, Adalbert, 2009. "Real convergence, financial markets, and the current account - Emerging Europe versus emerging Asia," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 100-123, August.
  12. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter M. Garber, 2004. "The US Current Account Deficit and Economic Development: Collateral for a Total Return Swap," NBER Working Papers 10727, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Ca' Zorzi, Michele & Chudik, Alexander & Dieppe, Alistair, 2009. "Current account benchmarks for central and eastern Europe: a desperate search?," Working Paper Series 0995, European Central Bank.
  14. Devereux, Michael B. & Genberg, Hans, 2007. "Currency appreciation and current account adjustment," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 570-586, June.
  15. Richard H. Clarida & Manuela Goretti & Mark P. Taylor, 2006. "Are There Thresholds of Current Account Adjustment in the G7?," NBER Working Papers 12193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Jesmin Rahman, 2008. "Current Account Developments in New Member States of the European Union," IMF Working Papers 08/92, International Monetary Fund.
  17. Sachs, Jeffrey, 1982. " The Current Account in the Macroeconomic Adjustment Process," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 84(2), pages 147-59.
  18. corrinne ho & robert n mccauley, 2004. "Living with flexible exchange rates:," International Finance 0411003, EconWPA.
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Cited by:
  1. Olga Arratibel & Davide Furceri & Reiner Martin & Aleksandra Zdzienicka-Durand, 2011. "The Effect of Nominal Exchange Rate Volatility on Real Macroeconomic Performance in the CEE Countries," Post-Print halshs-00456606, HAL.
  2. Issiaka Coulibaly & Blaise Gnimassoun, 2013. "Current account sustainability in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does the exchange rate regime matter?," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-42, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX.
  3. Herrmann, Sabine & Jochem, Axel, 2013. "Current account adjustment in EU countries: Does euro-area membership make a difference?," Discussion Papers 49/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  4. Ghosh, Atish R. & Qureshi, Mahvash S. & Tsangarides, Charalambos G., 2013. "Is the exchange rate regime really irrelevant for external adjustment?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 104-109.

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