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Age structure and the current account

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  • Gudmundur S. Gudmundsson

    (Universitat Pompeu Fabra)

  • Gylfi Zoega

    (Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics, Birkbeck
    University of Iceland)

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    Abstract

    We adjust current account surpluses and deficits of 57 countries in the period 2005-2009 for differences in the age structure of their populations and find that these differences can account for a significant part of the variation in the data. Among the large countries we find that the adjustment increases the surpluses of Germany and Japan while the surpluses of China, Singapore, Hong Kong, Korea, Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia are significantly diminished.

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    File URL: http://www.bbk.ac.uk/ems/research/wp/2013/PDFs/BWPEF1307.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2013
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics in its series Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance with number 1307.

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    Date of creation: Nov 2013
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    Handle: RePEc:bbk:bbkefp:1307

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    Keywords: Current account; age structure; life-cycle saving behavior.;

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    1. Paul R. Masson & Ralph W. Tryon, 1990. "Macroeconomic Effects of Projected Population Aging in Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 37(3), pages 453-485, September.
    2. Yunus Aksoy & Tobias Grasl & Ron P. Smith, 2012. "The Economic Impact of Demographic Structure in OECD Countries," CESifo Working Paper Series 3960, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. Adams, Nassau A, 1971. "Dependency Rates and Savings Rates: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 61(3), pages 472-75, June.
    4. Goldberger, Arthur S, 1973. "Dependency Rates and Savings Rates: Further Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(1), pages 232-33, March.
    5. Alan M. Taylor & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1991. "Capital Flows to the New World as an Intergenerational Transfer," NBER Historical Working Papers 0032, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Taylor, Alan M., 1995. "Debt, dependence and the demographic Transition: Latin America in to the next century," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 869-879, May.
    7. Leff, Nathaniel H, 1969. "Dependency Rates and Savings Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(5), pages 886-96, December.
    8. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
    9. James M. Poterba, 1994. "Introduction to "International Comparisons of Household Saving"," NBER Chapters, in: International Comparisons of Household Saving, pages 1-10 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. James Poterba, 1994. "International Comparisons of Household Saving," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number pote94-1, July.
    11. John B. Taylor, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and the Policy Responses: An Empirical Analysis of What Went Wrong," NBER Working Papers 14631, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Herbertsson, Tryggvi Thor & Zoega, Gylfi, 1999. "Trade surpluses and life-cycle saving behaviour," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 227-237, November.
    13. Graham, John W., 1989. "International differences in saving rates and the life cycle hypothesis : Reply and further evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 1499-1507, September.
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