Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Monetary Policy and Dividend Growth in Germany: Long-Run Structural Modelling versus Bounds Testing Approach

Contents:

Author Info

  • Ansgar Belke
  • Thorsten Polleit

    ()

Abstract

This study examines the long-run relationship between monetary policy and dividend growth in Germany. For this purpose, cointegration is tested for between both variables in the period 1974 to 2003. However, problems related to spurious regression arise from the mixed order of integration of the series used, from mutual causation between the variables and from the lack of a long-run relationship among the variables of the model. These problems are addressed by applying the bounds testing approach to cointegration in addition to a more standard long-run structural modelling approach. In principle, both procedures are capable of dealing with the controversial issue of the exogeneity of monetary policy vis-a-vis dividend growth. However, the structural modelling approach still leaves a certain degree of uncertainty about the integration properties of the interest rate and the dividend growth. Hence, one feels legitimized to refer to the bounds testing procedure and to conclude that in the longer term short-term rates drive stock returns but not vice versa.

(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://www.uni-hohenheim.de/RePEc/hoh/papers/250.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany in its series Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim with number 250/2005.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hoh:hohdip:250

Contact details of provider:
Postal: D-70593 Stuttgart
Phone: 0711/459-22992
Fax: 0711/459-22993
Email:
Web page: http://www.uni-hohenheim.de/institution/institut-fuer-economics-11
More information through EDIRC

Related research

Keywords:

Other versions of this item:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J., 1997. "Structural Analysis of Vector Error Correction Models with Exogenous I(1) Variables," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9706, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  2. Bill Dupor & Timothy Conley, 2004. "The Fed Response to Equity Prices and Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 24-28, May.
  3. Tim Robinson & Andrew Stone, 2005. "Monetary Policy, Asset-Price Bubbles and the Zero Lower Bound," NBER Working Papers 11105, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Ricardo Faria, Joao & Leon-Ledesma, Miguel, 2003. "Testing the Balassa-Samuelson effect: Implications for growth and the PPP," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 241-253, June.
  5. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2001. "Measuring the reaction of monetary policy to the stock market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2006. "Dead man walking: an empirical reassessment of the deterrent effect of capital punishment using the bounds testing approach to cointegration," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(17), pages 1975-1989.
  7. repec:fth:inseep:9645 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
  9. James Payne, 2003. "Post stabilization estimates of money demand in Croatia: error correction model using the bounds testing approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(16), pages 1723-1727.
  10. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Raymond Chi Wing Ng, 2002. "Long-Run Demand for Money in Hong Kong: An Application of the ARDL Model," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 1(2), pages 147-155, August.
  11. Rigobon, Roberto & Sack, Brian, 2004. "The impact of monetary policy on asset prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(8), pages 1553-1575, November.
  12. Pesaran, M.H. & Shin, Y., 1995. "An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Modelling Approach to Cointegration Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9514, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  13. Tuck Cheong Tang, 2002. "Demand for M3 and expenditure components in Malaysia: assessment from bounds testing approach," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(11), pages 721-725.
  14. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
  15. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2003. "Attendance and pricing at sporting events: empirical results from Granger Causality Tests for the Melbourne Cup," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(15), pages 1649-1657.
  16. Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y. & Smith, R. J., 1996. "Testing for the 'Existence of a Long-run Relationship'," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9622, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  17. Charalambos Pattichis, 1999. "Price and income elasticities of disaggregated import demand: results from UECMs and an application," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(9), pages 1061-1071.
  18. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
  19. Siklos, Pierre L. & Bohl, Martin T. & Werner, Thomas, 2003. "Did the Bundesbank React to Stock Price Movements?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2003,14, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  20. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Hans Genberg & Sushil Wadhwani, 2002. "Asset Prices in a Flexible Inflation Targeting Framework," NBER Working Papers 8970, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. João Ricardo Faria & Miguel León-Ledesma, 2000. "Testing the Balassa-Samuelson Effect: Implications for Growth and PPP," Studies in Economics 0008, Department of Economics, University of Kent.
  22. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:5:p:1131-47 is not listed on IDEAS
  23. Charles R. Bean, 2004. "Asset Prices, Financial Instability, and Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 14-18, May.
  24. Cavanagh, Christopher L. & Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 1995. "Inference in Models with Nearly Integrated Regressors," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(05), pages 1131-1147, October.
  25. Tuck Cheong Tang & Mahendhiran Nair, 2002. "A cointegration analysis of Malaysian import demand function: reassessment from the bounds test," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(5), pages 293-296.
  26. Muhammad Islam, 2004. "The long run relationship between openness and government size: evidence from bounds test," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(9), pages 995-1000.
  27. Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2005. "New evidence on purchasing power parity from 17 OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 1063-1071.
  28. Detken, Carsten & Smets, Frank, 2004. "Asset price booms and monetary policy," Working Paper Series 0364, European Central Bank.
  29. J. Benson Durham, 2003. "Does monetary policy affect stock prices and Treasury yields? An error correction and simultaneous equation approach," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2003-10, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Manuel González-Gómez & Marcos Alvarez-Díaz & Mª Soledad Otero-Giraldez, 2012. "Estimating the Long-Run Impact of Forest Fires on the Eucalyptus Timber Supply in Galicia, Spain," Working Papers 1206, Universidade de Vigo, Departamento de Economía Aplicada.
  2. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? – Cointegrated VAR versus Single Equation Techniques," Ruhr Economic Papers 0171, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  3. Ansgar Belke, 2010. "Die Auswirkungen der Geldmenge und des Kreditvolumens auf die Immobilienpreise – Ein ARDL-Ansatz für Deutschland," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 230(2), pages 138-162.
  4. Fedoseeva Svetlana, 2013. "(A)symmetry, (Non)linearity and Hysteresis of Pricing-To-Market: Evidence from German Sugar Confectionery Exports," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, January.
  5. Tobias Basse & Sebastian Reddemann, 2011. "Inflation and the dividend policy of US firms," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(1), pages 34-46, January.
  6. Chortareas, Georgios & Noikokyris, Emmanouil, 2014. "Monetary policy and stock returns under the MPC and inflation targeting," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 109-116.
  7. Mohammad Mirbagherijam, 2014. "Asymmetric Effect of Inflation on Dividend Policy of Iran's Stocks Market," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 4(2), pages 337-350, February.
  8. Belke, Ansgar & Orth, Walter & Setzer, Ralph, 2008. "Liquidity and the dynamic pattern of price adjustment: a global view," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,25, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hoh:hohdip:250. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ulrike Berberich) The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Ulrike Berberich to update the entry or send us the correct address.

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.