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Monetary Policy and Dividend Growth in Germany: Long-Run Structural Modelling versus Bounds Testing Approach

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  • Ansgar Belke
  • Thorsten Polleit

    ()

Abstract

This study examines the long-run relationship between monetary policy and dividend growth in Germany. For this purpose, cointegration is tested for between both variables in the period 1974 to 2003. However, problems related to spurious regression arise from the mixed order of integration of the series used, from mutual causation between the variables and from the lack of a long-run relationship among the variables of the model. These problems are addressed by applying the bounds testing approach to cointegration in addition to a more standard long-run structural modelling approach. In principle, both procedures are capable of dealing with the controversial issue of the exogeneity of monetary policy vis-a-vis dividend growth. However, the structural modelling approach still leaves a certain degree of uncertainty about the integration properties of the interest rate and the dividend growth. Hence, one feels legitimized to refer to the bounds testing procedure and to conclude that in the longer term short-term rates drive stock returns but not vice versa.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany in its series Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim with number 250/2005.

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Date of creation: 2005
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Handle: RePEc:hoh:hohdip:250

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Ansgar Belke, 2009. "Die Auswirkungen der Geldmenge und des Kreditvolumens auf die Immobilienpreise: ein ARDL-Ansatz für Deutschland," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 953, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  2. Mohammad Mirbagherijam, 2014. "Asymmetric Effect of Inflation on Dividend Policy of Iran's Stocks Market," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 4(2), pages 337-350, February.
  3. Manuel González-Gómez & Marcos Alvarez-Díaz & Mª Soledad Otero-Giraldez, 2012. "Estimating the Long-Run Impact of Forest Fires on the Eucalyptus Timber Supply in Galicia, Spain," Working Papers 1206, Universidade de Vigo, Departamento de Economía Aplicada.
  4. Fedoseeva Svetlana, 2013. "(A)symmetry, (Non)linearity and Hysteresis of Pricing-To-Market: Evidence from German Sugar Confectionery Exports," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, January.
  5. Tobias Basse & Sebastian Reddemann, 2011. "Inflation and the dividend policy of US firms," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(1), pages 34-46, January.
  6. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
  7. Chortareas, Georgios & Noikokyris, Emmanouil, 2014. "Monetary policy and stock returns under the MPC and inflation targeting," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 109-116.
  8. Belke, Ansgar & Orth, Walter & Setzer, Ralph, 2008. "Liquidity and the dynamic pattern of price adjustment: a global view," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,25, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.

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