Dividend Yields for Forecasting Stock Market Returns. An ARDL Cointegration Analysis for Germany
AbstractThis paper empirically assesses the ability of dividend yields to predict future tock returns in Germany assuming efficient markets and rational expectations. Since the order of integration of repressors are not exactly known, a bound procedure, namely a n autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, is applied to test for cointegrating relationships among future stock returns and today’s divided yields. It is also capable of dealing with the controversial issue of exogeneity of the dividend yield. ARDL and error-correction models are estimated for (future) stock returns and the dividend yield based on consistent estimates and standard normal asymptotic theory.
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Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Cyprus Economic Society and University of Cyprus in its journal Ekonomia.
Volume (Year): 9 (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 (Summer)
Other versions of this item:
- Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2004. "Dividend Yields for Forecasting Stock Market Returns - An ARDL Cointegration Analysis for Germany," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut fÃ¼r Volkswirtschaftslehre der UniversitÃ¤t Hohenheim 244/2004, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
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