Does monetary policy affect stock prices and treasury yields? An error correction and simultaneous equation approach

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Does monetary policy affect stock prices and treasury yields? An error correction and simultaneous equation approach

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J. Benson Durham

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J. Benson Durham

Abstract

This study pursues two addenda to the practitioner and academic on the effect of monetary policy on asset prices. First, this paper applies cointegration theory, and, second, relaxes the stringent assumption in the literature that changes in 10-year Treasury yields, stock returns, and changes in the stance of monetary policy are exogenous. Given quarterly data from 1978:Q4 to 2002:Q3, two-stage least squares (2SLS) regressions suggest that changes in the exogenous component of the federal funds rate affect changes in Treasury yields but not stock returns, ceteris paribus. However, this result is sensitive to alternative proxies for the stance of monetary policy. Also, little evidence suggests that monetary policy responds to the exogenous components of changes in financial asset prices.

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Paper provided by Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.) in its series Finance and Economics Discussion Series with number 2003-10.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2003-10

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Keywords: Capital ; Prices ; Monetary policy;

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

NEP-ALL-2003-05-08 (All new papers)
NEP-FIN-2003-05-08 (Finance)
NEP-FMK-2003-05-08 (Financial Markets)
NEP-MAC-2003-05-08 (Macroeconomics)

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

J. Benson Durham, 2001. "The effect of monetary policy on monthly and quarterly stock market returns: cross-country evidence and sensitivity analyses," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-42, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
Durham, J. Benson, 2001. "Sensitivity analyses of anomalies in developed stock markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1503-1541, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Technical Working Papers 0100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- Campbell, J.Y. & Perron, P., 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomics should know about unit roots," Papers 360, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- John Y. Campbell & Pierre Perron, 1991. "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know About Unit Roots," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 141-220 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!]
Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Granger, Clive W J, 1986. "Developments in the Study of Cointegrated Economic Variables," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 48(3), pages 213-28, August.
Bernanke, Ben S. & Mihov, Ilian, 1995. "Measuring Monetary Policy," Economics Series 10, Institute for Advanced Studies. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1995. "Measuring Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5145, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1995. "Measuring monetary policy," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-88, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Other versions:
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," NBER Working Papers 1885, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 785, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
Conover, C. Mitchell & Jensen, Gerald R. & Johnson, Robert R., 1999. "Monetary environments and international stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(9), pages 1357-1381, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
De Bondt, Werner F M & Thaler, Richard, 1985. " Does the Stock Market Overreact?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(3), pages 793-805, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2005. "(How) Do Stock Market Returns React to Monetary Policy? - An ARDL Cointegration Analysis for Germany," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut fÃ¼r Volkswirtschaftslehre der UniversitÃ¤t Hohenheim 253/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany. [Downloadable!]
Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Dividend Growth in Germany: Long-Run Structural Modelling versus Bounds Testing Approach," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut fÃ¼r Volkswirtschaftslehre der UniversitÃ¤t Hohenheim 250/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany. [Downloadable!]
Other versions:
- Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2006. "Monetary policy and dividend growth in Germany: long-run structural modelling versus bounds testing approach," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 38(12), pages 1409-1423, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)

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