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Die Auswirkungen der Geldmenge und des Kreditvolumens auf die Immobilienpreise – Ein ARDL-Ansatz für Deutschland

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  • Ansgar Belke

    ()
    (Universität Duisburg-Essen)

Abstract

The current financial crisis is often said to be caused by excessive liquidity and distorted incentives in the US subprime real estate sector. Taking this as a starting point, this paper analyzes the relation between house prices and credit respectively money growth between 1992 and 2006 (West German price data) and from 1997 to 2006 (East German price data). We focus on the German economy which – due to the creation of excess capacities in the wake of reunification – did not experience a house price bubble in contrast to other euro area economies such as Ireland and Spain. Applying an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach we test for cointegration among the relevant variables. After estimating the long-run coefficients, we derive the optimal specification of the corresponding error-correction models and estimate them. Our results suggest that both monetary and credit policy are responsible for house price development especially in Western Germany. We also check exhaustively for well-behaved estimated residuals and conduct some tests for structural breaks and robustness checks. For instance, we show that tax policies – specific depreciation possibilities in the new federal states – also have a significant impact on house prices but without dominating the impact of credit and money growth. Our results are also robust to the application of a more traditional cointegration testing procedure in the spirit of Johansen and Juselius.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics in its journal Journal of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 230 (2010)
Issue (Month): 2 ()
Pages: 138-162

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Handle: RePEc:jns:jbstat:v:230:y:2010:i:2:p:138-162

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Keywords: Autoregressive distributed lag model; credit growth; financial crisis; money growth; house prices; cointegration;

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References

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  1. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2004. "Dividend Yields for Forecasting Stock Market Returns - An ARDL Cointegration Analysis for Germany," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 244/2004, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
  2. repec:diw:diwfin:diwfin07040 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? – Cointegrated VAR versus Single Equation Techniques," Ruhr Economic Papers 0171, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  4. Balazs Egert & Dubravko Mihaljek, 2008. "Determinants of House Prices in Central and Eastern Europe," Working Papers 2008/1, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  5. Rudiger Ahrend & Boris Cournède & Robert W.R. Price, 2008. "Monetary Policy, Market Excesses and Financial Turmoil," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 597, OECD Publishing.
  6. Pietro Catte & Nathalie Girouard & Robert W.R. Price & Christophe André, 2004. "Housing Markets, Wealth and the Business Cycle," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 394, OECD Publishing.
  7. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2005. "(How) Do Stock Market Returns React to Monetary Policy? - An ARDL Cointegration Analysis for Germany," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 253/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
  8. Ansgar Belke, 2010. "Die Auswirkungen der Geldmenge und des Kreditvolumens auf die Immobilienpreise – Ein ARDL-Ansatz für Deutschland," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 230(2), pages 138-162.
  9. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Bohl, Martin T., 2000. "German monetary unification and the stability of the German M3 money demand function," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 203-208, February.
  10. Kai Carstensen & Oliver Hülsewig & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2009. "Monetary Policy Transmission and House Prices: European Cross Country Evidence," Working Paper / FINESS 7.4, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  11. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Dag Henning Jacobsen, 2008. "The role of house prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the U.S," Working Paper 2008/24, Norges Bank.
  12. Adalid, Ramón & Detken, Carsten, 2007. "Liquidity shocks and asset price boom/bust cycles," Working Paper Series 0732, European Central Bank.
  13. Bill Dupor & Timothy Conley, 2004. "The Fed Response to Equity Prices and Inflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 24-28, May.
  14. Ansgar Belke & Thorsten Polleit, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Dividend Growth in Germany: Long-Run Structural Modelling versus Bounds Testing Approach," Diskussionspapiere aus dem Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre der Universität Hohenheim 250/2005, Department of Economics, University of Hohenheim, Germany.
  15. Belke, Ansgar & Gros, Daniel, 2007. "Instability of the Eurozone? On Monetary Policy, House Prices and Labor Market Reforms," IZA Discussion Papers 2547, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  16. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Raymond Chi Wing Ng, 2002. "Long-Run Demand for Money in Hong Kong: An Application of the ARDL Model," International Journal of Business and Economics, College of Business, and College of Finance, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 1(2), pages 147-155, August.
  17. Ansgar Belke & Walter Orth & Ralph Setzer, 2008. "Sowing the seeds for the subprime crisis: does global liquidity matter for housing and other asset prices?," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 403-424, December.
  18. Charles R. Bean, 2004. "Asset Prices, Financial Instability, and Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(2), pages 14-18, May.
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Cited by:
  1. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? – Cointegrated VAR versus Single Equation Techniques," Ruhr Economic Papers 0171, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
  2. Ansgar Belke, 2010. "Die Auswirkungen der Geldmenge und des Kreditvolumens auf die Immobilienpreise – Ein ARDL-Ansatz für Deutschland," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), Justus-Liebig University Giessen, Department of Statistics and Economics, vol. 230(2), pages 138-162.

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