This file is part of IDEAS, which uses RePEc data


[ Papers | Articles | Software | Books | Chapters | Authors | Institutions | JEL Classification | NEP reports | Search | New papers by email | Author registration | Rankings | Volunteers | FAQ | Blog | Help! ]

Global Excess Liquidity and House Prices - A VAR Analysis for OECD Countries

Author info | Abstract | Publisher info | Download info | Related research | Statistics
Author Info
Ansgar Belke ()
Walter Orth

Additional information is available for the following registered author(s):

Abstract

The belief that house prices are driven by specific regional and institutional variables and not at all by monetary conditions is so entrenched with some market participants and some commentators that the search for empirical support would seem to be a trivial task. However, this is not the case. This paper investigates the relationship between global excess liquidity and asset prices on a global scale:How important is global liquidity? How are asset (especially house) prices and other important macro variables like consumer prices affected by global monetary conditions? This paper analyses the international transmission of monetary shocks with a special focus on the effects of a global monetary aggregate ("global liquidity") on consumer prices and different asset prices.We estimate a variety of VAR models for the global economy using aggregated data that represent the major OECD countries. The impulse responses show that a positive shock to global liquidity leads to permanent increases in the global GDP deflator and in the global house price index, while the latter reaction is even more distinctive. Moreover, we find that there are subsequent spillovers to consumer prices. In contrast, we are not able to find empirical evidence in favour of the hypothesis that the MSCIWorld index as a measure of stock prices significantly reacts to changes in global liquidity.

Download Info
To download:

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. Information about this may be contained in the File-Format links below. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://repec.rwi-essen.de/files/REP_07_037.pdf
File Format: application/pdf
File Function:
Download Restriction: no

Publisher Info
Paper provided by Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen in its series Ruhr Economic Papers with number 0037.

Download reference. The following formats are available: HTML (with abstract), plain text (with abstract), BibTeX, RIS (EndNote, RefMan, ProCite), ReDIF
Length: 30 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:rwi:repape:0037

Contact details of provider:
Postal: Hohenzollernstra�e 1-3, 45128 Essen
Phone: (0201)8149-0
Fax: (0201)8149-200
Email:
Web page: http://www.rwi-essen.de/
More information through EDIRC

Order Information:
Web: http://www.rwi-essen.de/servlet/page?_pageid=594&_dad=portal30&_schema=PORTAL30

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its listing, contact: (Sabine Weiler).

Related research
Keywords: Global liquidity; inflation control; international spillovers; asset prices; VAR analysis;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
F01 - International Economics - - General - - - Global Outlook
F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Beyer, A. & Doornik, J.A. & Hendry, D.F., 2000. "Constructing Historical Euro-Zone Data," Economics Working Papers eco2000/10, European University Institute.
    Other versions:
  2. Pietro Catte & Nathalie Girouard & Robert Price & Christophe André, 2004. "Housing Markets, Wealth and the Business Cycle," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 394, OECD, Economics Department. [Downloadable!]
  3. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2007. "Housing and the Monetary Transmission Mechanism," NBER Working Papers 13518, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. Balázs Egert & Dubravko Mihaljek, 2007. "Determinants of House Prices in Central and Eastern Europe," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Joao Miguel Sousa & Andrea Zaghini, 2006. "Global Monetary Policy Shocks in the G5: A SVAR Approach," CFS Working Paper Series 2006/30, Center for Financial Studies. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Matteo Ciccarelli & Benoît Mojon, 2005. "Global inflation," Working Paper Series 537, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  7. Kenneth Rogoff, 2003. "Globalization and global disinflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 45-78. [Downloadable!]
  8. Ansgar Belke & Daniel Gros, 2007. "Instability of the Eurozone? On Monetary Policy, House Prices and Labor Market Reforms," IZA Discussion Papers 2547, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  9. Pesaran, H. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 1998. "Generalized impulse response analysis in linear multivariate models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 17-29, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  10. Barbara Roffia & Andrea Zaghini, 2007. "Excess money growth and inflation dynamics," Working Paper Series 749, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  11. Ramón Adalid & Carsten Detken, 2007. "Liquidity shocks and asset price boom/bust cycles," Working Paper Series 732, European Central Bank. [Downloadable!]
  12. Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2003. "Globalization and global disinflation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-112. [Downloadable!]
  13. Greiber, Claus & Setzer, Ralph, 2007. "Money and housing: evidence for the euro area and the US," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2007,12, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
  14. Rasmus Ruffer & Livio Stracca, 2007. "What is global excess liquidity, and does it matter?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 120, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  15. Favero, Carlo A. & Scott, Alasdair, 2003. "Applied Macroeconometrics," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 313-315, April. [Downloadable!]
  16. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  17. Goodhart, Charles & Hofmann, Boris, 2000. "Do Asset Prices Help to Predict Consumer Price Inflation?," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 68(0), pages 122-40, Supplemen. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
Full references

Statistics
Access and download statistics

Did you know? RePEc and its associated services are free for contributors and users, and do not accept any advertising.

This page was last updated on 2009-11-17.


This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Department of Economics, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, University of Connecticut using RePEc data on a server sponsored by the Society for Economic Dynamics.