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Monetary policy and dividend growth in Germany: long-run structural modelling versus bounds testing approach

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Ansgar Belke
Thorsten Polleit

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Abstract

This study examines the long-run relationship between monetary policy and dividend growth in Germany. For this purpose, cointegration is tested for between both variables in the period 1974 to 2003. However, problems related to spurious regression arise from the mixed order of integration of the series used, from mutual causation between the variables and from the lack of a long-run relationship among the variables of the model. These problems are addressed by applying the bounds testing approach to cointegration in addition to a more standard long-run structural modelling approach. In principle, both procedures are capable of dealing with the controversial issue of the exogeneity of monetary policy vis-à-vis dividend growth. However, the structural modelling approach still leaves a certain degree of uncertainty about the integration properties of the interest rate and the dividend growth. Hence, one feels legitimized to refer to the bounds testing procedure and to conclude that in the longer term short-term rates drive stock returns but not vice versa.

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Article provided by Taylor and Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics.

Volume (Year): 38 (2006)
Issue (Month): 12 (July)
Pages: 1409-1423
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Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:38:y:2006:i:12:p:1409-1423

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    Other versions:
  2. João Ricardo Faria & Miguel León-Ledesma, 2000. "Testing the Balassa-Samuelson Effect: Implications for Growth and PPP," Studies in Economics 0008, Department of Economics, University of Kent. [Downloadable!]
  3. James E. Payne, 2003. "Post stabilization estimates of money demand in Croatia: error correction model using the bounds testing approach," Applied Economics, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 35(16), pages 1723-1727, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  24. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:5:p:1131-47 is not listed on IDEAS
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  1. Belke, Ansgar & Orth, Walter & Setzer, Ralph, 2008. "Liquidity and the dynamic pattern of price adjustment: a global view," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2008,25, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre. [Downloadable!]
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