External shocks, internal shots - the geography of civil conflicts
AbstractThis paper uses detailed information on the latitude and longitude of conflict events within a set of Sub-Saharan African countries to study the impact of external income shocks on the likelihood of violence. We consider a number of external demand shocks faced by the country or the regions within countries - changes in the world demand of agricultural commodities, financial crises in the partner countries or changes in foreign trade policy - and combine these with information reflecting the natural level of trade openness of the location. We find that (i) within-country, the incidence, intensity and onset of conflicts are generally negatively and significantly correlated with income shocks within locations; (ii) this relationship is significantly weaker for the most remote locations, i.e those located away from the main seaports, (iii) at country-level, we cannot detect any significant effect of these shock on conflict incidence or onset; but (iv) large and longlasting shocks seem to affect the location of conflict outbreaks. In general, our results suggest that external income shocks are important determinants of the intensity and geography of conflicts within countries. However, conflicts tend to start in remote locations which are naturally less affected by foreign shocks, which might explain why these seem to have little effect on conflict onset at the country-level.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies in its series IHEID Working Papers with number 13-2012.
Length: 46 pages
Date of creation: 10 Sep 2012
Date of revision:
con ict; income shock; civil war;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances
- F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
- O13 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
- Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2009.
"International Commodity Prices, Growth, and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa,"
- Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2010. "International Commodity Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 519-534, 05.
- Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2007. "International commodity prices, growth and the outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economics Working Papers 1053, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Aug 2009.
- Mathias Thoenig & Thierry Mayer & Philippe Martin, 2008.
"Civil Wars and International Trade,"
Sciences Po publications
info:hdl:2441/10149, Sciences Po.
- Garth Frazer & Johannes Van Biesebroeck, 2010.
"Trade Growth under the African Growth and Opportunity Act,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 92(1), pages 128-144, February.
- Garth Frazer & Johannes Van Biesebroeck, 2007. "Trade Growth under the African Growth and Opportunity Act," NBER Working Papers 13222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Garth Frazer & Johannes Van Biesebroeck, 2007. "Trade Growth under the African Growth and Opportunity Act," Working Papers tecipa-289, University of Toronto, Department of Economics.
- Yu-Hsiang Lei & Guy Michaels, 2012.
"Do Giant Oilfield Discoveries Fuel Internal Armed Conflicts?,"
OxCarre Working Papers
067, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
- Yu-Hsiang Lei & Guy Michaels, 2011. "Do Giant Oilfield Discoveries Fuel Internal Armed Conflicts?," CEP Discussion Papers dp1089, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Lei, Yu-Hsiang & Michaels, Guy, 2011. "Do Giant Oilfield Discoveries Fuel Internal Armed Conflicts?," CEPR Discussion Papers 8620, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Yu-Hsiang Lei & Guy Michaels, 2011. "Do giant oilfield discoveries fuel internal armed conflicts?," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 48088, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Garfinkel, Michelle R. & Skaperdas, Stergios, 2007.
"Economics of Conflict: An Overview,"
Handbook of Defense Economics,
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011.
"From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
- Anca Cotet & Kevin K. Tsui, 2010.
"Oil and Conflict: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?,"
201002, Ball State University, Department of Economics, revised Mar 2010.
- Anca M. Cotet & Kevin K. Tsui, 2013. "Oil and Conflict: What Does the Cross Country Evidence Really Show?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 49-80, January.
- Chassang, Sylvain & Miquel, Gerard PadrÃ³ i, 2009. "Economic Shocks and Civil War," International Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 4(3), pages 211-228, October.
- Oeindrila Dube & Juan F. Vargas, 2013. "Commodity Price Shocks and Civil Conflict: Evidence from Colombia," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 1384-1421.
- Mathieu Couttenier & Raphael Soubeyran, 2010.
"Drought and Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa,"
10-13, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier, revised Dec 2012.
- Antonin Aviat & Nicolas Coeurdacier, 2007.
"The geography of trade in goods and asset holdings,"
Sciences Po publications
info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pd, Sciences Po.
- Aviat, Antonin & Coeurdacier, Nicolas, 2007. "The geography of trade in goods and asset holdings," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 22-51, March.
- Antonin Aviat & Nicolas Coeurdacier, 2004. "The geography of trade in goods and asset holdings," DELTA Working Papers 2004-10, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
- Aviat, Antonin & Coeurdacier, Nicolas, 2006. "The Geography of Trade in Goods and Asset Holdings," ESSEC Working Papers DR 06012, ESSEC Research Center, ESSEC Business School.
- Hannes Mueller & Dominic Rohner & David Schoenholzer, 2013. "Tectonic Boundaries and Strongholds: The Religious Geography of Violence in Northern Ireland," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du DÃ©partement d'EconomÃ©trie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 13.04, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
- Nicolas Berman & Philippe Martin, 2012. "The Vulnerability of Sub-Saharan Africa to Financial Crises: The Case of Trade," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 60(3), pages 329-364, September.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Johannes Eugster).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.