Civil Wars and International Trade
AbstractThis paper analyzes empirically the relationship between civil wars and international trade. We first show that trade destruction due to civil wars is very large and persistent and increases with the severity of the conflict. We then identify two effects that trade can have on the risk of civil conflicts: it may act as a deterrent if trade gains are put at risk during civil wars but it may also act as an insurance if international trade provides a substitute to internal trade during civil wars. We find support for the presence of these two mechanisms and conclude that trade openness may deter the most severe civil wars (those that destroy the largest amount of trade) but may increase the risk of lower scale conflicts.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Sciences Po in its series Sciences Po publications with number info:hdl:2441/10149.
Date of creation: Apr 2008
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of the European Economic Association, 2008, vol. 6, pp.541-550
Other versions of this item:
- F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
- F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
- F52 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
- F59 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - Other
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