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Adverse rainfall shocks and civil war: Myth or reality?

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  • Ricardo Maertens

    (Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra)

Abstract

News reports and policy makers frequently link African civil conflicts and wars to agricultural crises caused by droughts. However, empirical studies of the relationship between rainfall and civil conflict or war remain inconclusive. I reexamine this relationship focusing on rainfall over each country's agricultural land during the growing seasons. I also incorporate that the relationship between rainfall and agricultural output is hump-shaped, as rainfall beyond a threshold decreases output. I find a U-shaped relationship between rainfall and the risk of civil conflict and war in (Sub-Saharan) African countries. This relationship mirrors the hump-shaped relationship between rainfall and agricultural output.

Suggested Citation

  • Ricardo Maertens, 2016. "Adverse rainfall shocks and civil war: Myth or reality?," HiCN Working Papers 212, Households in Conflict Network.
    • Handle: RePEc:hic:wpaper:212
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    Cited by:

    1. Ciccone, Antonio, 2018. "Democratic Tipping Points," CEPR Discussion Papers 12785, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Ciccone, Antonio, 2018. "International Commodity Prices and Civil War Outbreak: New Evidence for Sub-Saharan Africa and Beyond," CEPR Discussion Papers 12625, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Martin-Shields, Charles P. & Stojetz, Wolfgang, 2019. "Food security and conflict: Empirical challenges and future opportunities for research and policy making on food security and conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 150-164.
    4. Astrid Sneyers, 2017. "Food, Drought and Conflict Evidence from a Case-Study on Somalia," HiCN Working Papers 252, Households in Conflict Network.
    5. Sara Cools & Martin Flatø & Andreas Kotsadam, 2020. "Rainfall shocks and intimate partner violence in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(3), pages 377-390, May.

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