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Climatic Fluctuations and the Diffusion of Agriculture

Author

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  • Quamrul Ashraf

    (Williams College)

  • Stelios Michalopoulos

    (Brown University and NBER)

Abstract

This research examines the climatic origins of the diffusion of Neolithic agriculture across countries and archaeological sites. The theory suggests that a foraging society's history of climatic shocks shaped the timing of its adoption of farming. Specifically, as long as climatic disturbances did not lead to a collapse of the underlying resource base, the rate at which hunter-gatherers were climatically propelled to experiment with their habitats determined the accumulation of tacit knowledge complementary to farming. Consistent with the proposed hypothesis, the empirical investigation demonstrates that, conditional on biogeographic endowments, climatic volatility has a hump-shaped effect on the timing of the adoption of agriculture.

Suggested Citation

  • Quamrul Ashraf & Stelios Michalopoulos, 2015. "Climatic Fluctuations and the Diffusion of Agriculture," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 97(3), pages 589-609, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:97:y:2015:i:2:p:589-609
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    6. Anastasia Litina, 2016. "Natural land productivity, cooperation and comparative development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 21(4), pages 351-408, December.
    7. Linsenmeier, Manuel, 2021. "Temperature variability and long-run economic development," SocArXiv xvucn, Center for Open Science.
    8. Antonio Ciccone & Adilzhan Ismailov, 2022. "Rainfall, Agricultural Output and Persistent Democratization," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 89(354), pages 229-257, April.
    9. Ang, James B. & Gupta, Satyendra Kumar, 2018. "Agricultural yield and conflict," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 397-417.
    10. Oasis Kodila‐Tedika & Sherif Khalifa, 2020. "Long‐term vision and economic development," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(11), pages 3088-3102, November.
    11. Andrew Dickens, 2022. "Understanding Ethnolinguistic Differences: The Roles of Geography and Trade," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(643), pages 953-980.
    12. Voigt, Stefan, 2022. "Determinant of Social Norms," ILE Working Paper Series 58, University of Hamburg, Institute of Law and Economics.
    13. Oana Borcan & Ola Olsson & Louis Putterman, 2018. "State history and economic development: evidence from six millennia," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 1-40, March.
    14. Fenske, James & Kala, Namrata, 2015. "Climate and the slave trade," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 19-32.
    15. Ricardo Maertens, 2016. "Adverse rainfall shocks and civil war: Myth or reality?," HiCN Working Papers 212, Households in Conflict Network.
    16. Chambru, Cédric, 2020. "Weather shocks, poverty and crime in 18th-century Savoy," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    17. Andrew Dickens & Nils‐Petter Lagerlöf, 2023. "The long‐run agglomeration effects of early agriculture in Europe," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 61(3), pages 629-651, July.
    18. Javier Mejía, 2018. "The Network Formation Origin of Tribal Societies," Documentos CEDE 16381, Universidad de los Andes, Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    19. T. Ryan Johnson & Dietrich Vollrath, 2017. "How Tight are Malthusian Constraints?," Working Papers 2017-192-55, Department of Economics, University of Houston.
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    21. Matranga, Andrea, 2017. "The Ant and the Grasshopper: Seasonality and the Invention of Agriculture," MPRA Paper 76626, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Riahi, Ideen, 2020. "How hominin dispersals and megafaunal extinctions influenced the birth of agriculture," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 227-250.
    23. T. Ryan Johnson & Dietrich Vollrath, 2020. "The Role of Land in Temperate and Tropical Agriculture," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 87(348), pages 901-937, October.
    24. Adelaide Baronchelli & Alessandra Foresta & Roberto Ricciuti, 2020. "The Words That Keep People Apart. Official Language, Accountability and Fiscal Capacity," CESifo Working Paper Series 8437, CESifo.
    25. Linsenmeier, Manuel, 2023. "Temperature variability and long-run economic development," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 119485, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate; agriculture;

    JEL classification:

    • Q10 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - General
    • Q13 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Markets and Marketing; Cooperatives; Agribusiness

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