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Civil Wars and International Trade

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Author Info
Martin, Philippe
Mayer, Thierry
Thoenig, Mathias

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Abstract

This paper analyzes empirically the relationship between civil wars and international trade. We first show that trade destruction due to civil wars is very large and persistent and increases with the severity of the conflict. We then test the presence of two effects that trade can have on the risk of civil conflicts: it may act as a deterrent if trade gains are put at risk during civil wars but it may also act as an insurance if international trade provides a substitute to internal trade during civil wars. We find support for the presence of these two mechanisms and conclude that trade openness may deter the most severe civil wars (those that destroy the largest amount of trade) but may increase the risk of lower scale conflicts.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 6659.

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Date of creation: Jan 2008
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:6659

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Related research
Keywords: civil war globalization trade

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
F51 - International Economics - - International Relations and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
F52 - International Economics - - International Relations and International Political Economy - - - National Security; Economic Nationalism
F59 - International Economics - - International Relations and International Political Economy - - - Other

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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2004. "Economic determinants of free trade agreements," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 29-63, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. S. Brock Blomberg & Gregory D Hess, 2006. "How Much Does Violence Tax Trade?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 88(4), pages 599-612, October. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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This page was last updated on 2008-8-19.

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