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Does Trade Integration Contribute to Peace?

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  • Lee, Jong-Wha

    ()
    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Pyun, Ju Hyun

    ()
    (University of California, Davis)

Abstract

This paper investigates the effect of trade integration on military conflict. Our empirical analysis,based on a large panel data set of 290,040 country-pair observations from 1950 to 2000, confirms that an increase in bilateral trade interdependence and global trade openness significantly promotes peace. It also suggests that the effect of trade openness varies depending on the geographical proximity of countries. The peace-promotion effect of bilateral trade integration is significantly higher for contiguous countries that are likely to experience more conflicts. The analysis shows, however, that an increase in global trade openness reduces the probability of conflict more for countries far apart from each other than it does for countries sharing borders. The results also show that military conflict between countries significantly reduces not only bilateral trade interdependence but also multilateral trade integration. The main finding of the peace-promotion effect of bilateral and global trade integration holds robust when controlling for the natural and geopolitical characteristics of dyads of states that may influence the probability of military conflict and for the simultaneous determination of trade and peace.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Asian Development Bank in its series Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration with number 24.

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Length: 44 pages
Date of creation: 01 Jan 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ris:adbrei:0024

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Keywords: Trade; Globalization; Military conflict; Peace;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Chauffour, Jean-Pierre & Maur, Jean-Christophe, 2010. "Beyond market access : the new normal of preferential trade agreements," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5454, The World Bank.
  2. McKibbin, Warwick J. & Chanthapun, Waranya Pim, 2009. "Exchange Rate Regimes in the Asia-Pacific Region and the Global Financial Crisis," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 36, Asian Development Bank.
  3. Schou-Zibell, Lotte & Madhur, Srinivasa, 2010. "Regulatory Reforms for Improving the Business Environment in Selected Asian Economies - How Monitoring and Comparative Benchmarking Can Provide Incentive for Reform," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 40, Asian Development Bank.
  4. Madhur, Srinivasa & Wignaraja, Ganeshan & Darjes, Peter, 2009. "Roads for Asian Integration: Measuring ADB's Contribution to the Asian Highway Network," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 37, Asian Development Bank.
  5. Rigg, Robert & Schou-Zibell, Lotte, 2009. "The Financial Crisis and Money Markets in Emerging Asia," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 38, Asian Development Bank.
  6. Thierry Verdier, 2010. "Regional Integration, Fragility and Institution Building: An Analytical Framework Applied to the African Context," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 38, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).

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