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Imperfect Common Knowledge in First Generation Models of Currency Crises

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  • Gara Minguez Afonso

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Abstract

First generation models assume that the level of reserves of a Central Bank in a fixed exchange rate regime is common knowledge among consummers, and therefore the timing of the attack on the currency, in an economy with persistent deficit, can be correctly anticipated. In these models, the collapse of the peg leads to no discrete change in the exchange rate. We relax the assumption of perfect information and introduce uncertainty about the willingness of a Central Bank to defend the peg. In this new setting, there is a unique equilibrium at which the fixed exchange is abandoned. In our model, the lack of common knowledge will lead to a discrete devaluation of the local currency once the peg finally collapses.

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Paper provided by Financial Markets Group in its series FMG Discussion Papers with number dp555.

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Date of creation: Feb 2006
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Handle: RePEc:fmg:fmgdps:dp555

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  1. Ivan Pastine, 2000. "Speculation and the Decision to Abandon a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0931, Econometric Society.
  2. Fernando A. Broner, 2004. "Discrete Devaluations and Multiple Equilibria in a First Generation Model of Currency Crises," Working Papers 186, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
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  6. Markus K Brunnermeier, 2002. "Bubbles and Crashes," FMG Discussion Papers dp401, Financial Markets Group.
  7. Gara Minguez-Afonso, 2007. "Imperfect Common Knowledge in First-Generation Models of Currency Crises," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(1), pages 81-112, March.
  8. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, December.
  9. Krugman, Paul, 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 11(3), pages 311-25, August.
  10. Stephen W. Salant & Dale W. Henderson, 1976. "Market anticipations, government policy, and the price of gold," International Finance Discussion Papers 81, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  11. Martin J Osborne & Ariel Rubinstein, 2009. "A Course in Game Theory," Levine's Bibliography 814577000000000225, UCLA Department of Economics.
  12. Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2006. "Dynamics of currency crises with asset market frictions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 141-158, January.
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Cited by:
  1. Tijmen Daniëls & Henk Jager & Franc Klaassen, 2009. "Defending Against Speculative Attacks," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-011, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
  2. Mei Li & Frank Milne, 2007. "The Role of Large Players in a Dynamic Currency Attack Game," Working Papers 1148, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  3. Gara Minguez-Afonso, 2006. "Imperfect common knowledge in first generation models of currency crises," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24509, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  4. Gara Minguez-Afonso, 2007. "Imperfect Common Knowledge in First-Generation Models of Currency Crises," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(1), pages 81-112, March.

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