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Imperfect Common Knowledge in First-Generation Models of Currency Crises

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  • Gara Minguez-Afonso

    (London School of Economics)

Abstract

First-generation models assume that the level of reserves of a central bank is common knowledge among arbitrageurs, and therefore the timing of the attack on the currency can be correctly anticipated. The collapse of the peg thus leads to no discrete change in the exchange rate. We relax the assumption of perfect information and introduce uncertainty about the willingness of a central bank to defend the peg. In this new setting, there is a unique equilibrium at which the fixed exchange rate is abandoned. The lack of common knowledge will lead to a discrete devaluation once the peg finally collapses.

Suggested Citation

  • Gara Minguez-Afonso, 2007. "Imperfect Common Knowledge in First-Generation Models of Currency Crises," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(1), pages 81-112, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2007:q:1:a:3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Broner, Fernando A., 2008. "Discrete devaluations and multiple equilibria in a first generation model of currency crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 592-605, April.
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    10. Guimaraes, Bernardo, 2006. "Dynamics of currency crises with asset market frictions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 141-158, January.
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    13. Flood, Robert P. & Garber, Peter M., 1984. "Collapsing exchange-rate regimes : Some linear examples," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1-2), pages 1-13, August.
    14. Gara Minguez-Afonso, 2007. "Imperfect Common Knowledge in First-Generation Models of Currency Crises," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(1), pages 81-112, March.
    15. Rochon, Celine, 2006. "Devaluation without common knowledge," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 470-489, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Mei & Milne, Frank, 2014. "The role of a large trader in a dynamic currency attack model," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 590-620.
    2. Doblas-Madrid, Antonio, 2016. "A finite model of riding bubbles," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 154-162.
    3. Gara Minguez-Afonso, 2007. "Imperfect Common Knowledge in First-Generation Models of Currency Crises," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(1), pages 81-112, March.
    4. Mei Li & Frank Milne, 2007. "The Role Of Large Players In A Dynamic Currency Attack Game," Working Paper 1148, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    5. Mei Li & Frank Milne, 2010. "A Large Trader in Bubbles and Crashes: an Application to Currency Attacks," Working Papers 1004, University of Guelph, Department of Economics and Finance.
    6. Minguez-Afonso, Gara, 2006. "Imperfect common knowledge in first generation models of currency crises," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 24509, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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