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Inflation targeting: why it works and how to make it work better

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Author Info
William T. Gavin

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Abstract

Inflation targeting has worked so well because it leads policymakers to debate, decide on, and communicate the inflation objective. In practice, this process has led the public to believe that the central bank has a long-term inflation objective. Inflation targeting has been successful, then, because the central bank decides on an objective and announces it, not because of a change in its day-to-day behavior in money markets or the way it reacts to news about unemployment or real GDP. By deciding on an inflation rate and announcing it, the central bank is providing information the public needs to concentrate expectations on a common trend. The central bank gains control indirectly by creating information that makes it more likely that people will price things in a way that is consistent with the central bank's goal. The way to improve inflation targeting is to be more explicit about the average inflation rate expected over all relevant horizons. Building a target path for the price level, growing at the desired inflation rate, is the best way to institutionalize a low-inflation environment. In a wide variety of economic models, a price-path target mitigates the zero lower bound problem, eliminates worries about deflation, and improves the central bank's ability to stabilize the real economy.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis in its series Working Papers with number 2003-027.

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Date of creation: 2003
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Publication status: Published in Business Economics, April 2004, 39(2), pp. 30-37
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2003-027

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Keywords: Inflation (Finance) Monetary policy

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This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports: References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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  2. Svensson, L-E-O, 1996. "Price Level Targeting vs Inflation Targeting : A free Lunch?," Papers 614, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
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  3. Balke, Nathan S. & Emery, Kenneth M., 1994. "The algebra of price stability," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 77-97. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Reifschneider, David & Willams, John C, 2000. "Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Era," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 936-66, November.
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  6. Barro, Robert J & Gordon, David B, 1983. "A Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(4), pages 589-610, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Robert Dittmar & William T. Gavin & Finn Kydland, 1999. "The inflation-output variability tradeoff and price-level targets," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 23-32. [Downloadable!]
  8. David Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2000. "Three lessons for monetary policy in a low-inflation era," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 936-978.
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  9. Vestin, David, 2000. "Price-level Targeting versus Inflation Targeting in a Forward-looking Model," Working Paper Series 106, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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  11. Bennett T. McCallum, 2003. "Multiple-Solution Indeterminacies in Monetary Policy Analysis," NBER Working Papers 9837, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Richard Clarida & Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules And Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence And Some Theory," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 115(1), pages 147-180, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  13. William T. Gavin, 2003. "FOMC forecasts: is all the information in the central tendency?," Working Papers 2003-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
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  14. Mervyn King, 1999. "Challenges for monetary policy : new and old," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 11-57. [Downloadable!]
  15. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Junhan Kim, 2003. "Inflation Targeting, Price-Path Targeting and Output Variability," NBER Working Papers 9672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  17. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Nessén, Marianne & Vestin, David, 2000. "Average Inflation Targeting," Working Paper Series 119, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Barnett, William A. & Duzhak, Evgeniya, 2006. "Non-Robust Dynamic Inferences from Macroeconometric Models: Bifurcation Stratification of Confidence Regions," MPRA Paper 402, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. William T. Gavin, 2005. "Recent developments in monetary macroeconomics and U.S. dollar policy," Working Papers 2005-062, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Sujit Kapadia, 2005. "Inflation-Target Expectations and Optimal Monetary Policy," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 81, Money Macro and Finance Research Group. [Downloadable!]
  4. William Whitesell, 2005. "An inflation goal with multiple reference measures," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2005-62, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  5. Sujit Kapadia, 2005. "Inflation-Target Expectations and Optimal Monetary Policy," Economics Series Working Papers 227, University of Oxford, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
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