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Inflation Targeting, Price-Path Targeting and Output Variability

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Author Info
Stephen G. Cecchetti
Junhan Kim

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Abstract

The dramatic improvement in macroeconomic outcomes during the 1990s - stable, low inflation and high, stable growth - can be at least partly ascribed to improved monetary policy. Central banks became more independent and many of them adopted inflation targeting. This paper examines the potential for further improvements by refining the concept of inflation targeting. We construct a general model that encompasses a broad array of possible target regimes, and apply it to the data. Our results suggest that the vast majority of countries could benefit from moving to pricepath targeting, where the central bank makes up for periods of above (below) target inflation with later periods of below (above) target inflation.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 9672.

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Date of creation: May 2003
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Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:9672

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E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Soderlind, Paul, 1999. "Solution and estimation of RE macromodels with optimal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 813-823, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Michael Ehrmann, 1999. "Does Inflation Targeting Increase Output Volatility? An International Comparison of Policymakers' Preferences and Outcomes," NBER Working Papers 7426, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Rogoff, Kenneth, 1985. "The Optimal Degree of Commitment to an Intermediate Monetary Target," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(4), pages 1169-89, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Batini, Nicoletta & Yates, Anthony, 2003. " Hybrid Inflation and Price-Level Targeting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 283-300, June.
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  6. Robert Dittmar & William T. Gavin & Finn Kydland, 1999. "The inflation-output variability tradeoff and price-level targets," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 23-32. [Downloadable!]
  7. Glenn D. Rudebusch & Lars E. O. Svensson, 1998. "Policy rules for inflation targeting," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
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  8. Robert Dittmar & William T. Gavin, 2000. "What do New-Keynesian Phillips Curves imply for price-level targeting?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 21-30. [Downloadable!]
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  9. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky Information Versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," NBER Working Papers 8290, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Vestin, David, 2000. "Price-level Targeting versus Inflation Targeting in a Forward-looking Model," Working Paper Series 106, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden). [Downloadable!]
  11. Mervyn King, 1999. "Challenges for monetary policy : new and old," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 11-57. [Downloadable!]
  12. Clark, Peter B. & Goodhart, Charles A. E. & Huang, Haizhou, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy rules in a rational expectations model of the Phillips curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 497-520, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Roc Armenter & Martin Bodenstein, 2006. "Of nutters and doves," International Finance Discussion Papers 885, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  2. Sebastian Edwards, 2006. "The Relationship Between Exchange Rates and Inflation Targeting Revisited," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 409, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
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  3. William T. Gavin, 2003. "Inflation targeting: why it works and how to make it work better," Working Papers 2003-027, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. [Downloadable!]
  4. Ray C. Fair, 2006. "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model," Levine's Bibliography 321307000000000303, UCLA Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  5. Robert Dixon & David Shepherd, 2006. "The Cyclical Dynamics and Volatility of Australian Output and Employment," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 968, The University of Melbourne. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  6. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2005. "Targeting versus instrument rules for monetary policy: what is wrong with McCallum and Nelson?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 613-626. [Downloadable!]
  7. Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2006. "Monetary Policy Under Inflation Targeting: An Introduction," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 396, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2003. "Escaping from a Liquidity Trap and Deflation: The Foolproof Way and Others," NBER Working Papers 10195, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  9. Lars E.O. Svensson, 2004. "Targeting Rules vs. Instrument Rules for Monetary Policy: What is Wrong with McCallum and Nelson?," NBER Working Papers 10747, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Stefan Krause, 2006. "Inflation Targeting versus Price-Path Targeting: Looking For Improvements," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 399, Central Bank of Chile. [Downloadable!]
  11. Vladimir Klyuev & Ondra Kamenik & Heesun Kiem & Douglas Laxton, 2008. "Why is Canada's Price Level So Predictable?," IMF Working Papers 08/25, International Monetary Fund. [Downloadable!]
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