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Non-Robust Dynamic Inferences from Macroeconometric Models: Bifurcation Stratification of Confidence Regions

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  • Barnett, William A.
  • Duzhak, Evgeniya A.

Abstract

Grandmont (1985) found that the parameter space of the most classical dynamic models are stratified into an infinite number of subsets supporting an infinite number of different kinds of dynamics, from monotonic stability at one extreme to chaos at the other extreme, and with many forms of multiperiodic dynamics between. The econometric implications of Grandmont’s findings are particularly important, if bifurcation boundaries cross the confidence regions surrounding parameter estimates in policy-relevant models. Stratification of a confidence region into bifurcated subsets seriously damages robustness of dynamical inferences. Recently, interest in policy in some circles has moved to New Keynesian models. As a result, in this paper we explore bifurcation within the class of New Keynesian models. We develop the econometric theory needed to locate bifurcation boundaries in log-linearized New-Keynesian models with Taylor policy rules or inflation-targeting policy rules. Central results needed in this research are our theorems on the existence and location of Hopf bifurcation boundaries in each of the cases that we consider.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 6005.

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Date of creation: 27 Nov 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:6005

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Keywords: Bifurcation; Hopf bifurcation; Euler equations; New Keynesian macroeconometrics; Bergstrom-Wymer model;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Sanjibani Banerjee & William Barnett & Evgeniya Duzhak & Ramu Gopalan, 2011. "Bifurcation Analysis of Zellner's Marshallian Macroeconomic Model," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201102, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Apr 2011.
  2. Barnett, William A. & Duzhak, Evgeniya A., 2008. "Empirical assessment of bifurcation regions within new Keynesian models," MPRA Paper 11249, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Barnett, William A. & Duzhak, Evgeniya Aleksandrovna, 2008. "Non-robust dynamic inferences from macroeconometric models: Bifurcation stratification of confidence regions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 387(15), pages 3817-3825.
  4. William Barnett & Unal Eryilmaz, 2012. "Hopf Bifurcation in the Clarida, Gali, and Gertler Model," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 201211, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Sep 2012.
  5. Barnett, William A. & He, Susan, 2010. "Existence of singularity bifurcation in an Euler-equations model of the United States economy: Grandmont was right," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1345-1354, November.

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