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Working Paper 113 - Monetary Policy Conduct Based on Nonlinear Taylor Rule: Evidence from South Africa

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  • Mthuli Ncube

    ()

  • Mthokozisi M. Tshuma

    ()

Abstract

This paper analyses the applicability of a nonlinear Taylor rule in characterizing the monetary policy behavior of the South African Reserve Bank, using a logistic smooth transition regression approach. Using quarterly data from 1976 to 2008 to analyze the movement of the nominal short term interest rate for the South African Reserve Bank, we find that a nonlinear Taylor rule holds. On the contrary, some studies find that the South African Reserve Bank behavior can be described by a linear Taylor rule, but only because these studies removed the structural break which coincided with the Asian crises and estimated two different Taylor rules. Our study does not remove the structural break as it is an anomaly path, thus it uses the entire sampling period. Our results go counter to the above mentioned findings. In fact, our results are consistent with the international findings on the European Central Bank and the Bank of England that the nonlinear Taylor rule holds.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by African Development Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 250.

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Date of creation: 11 Aug 2010
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Handle: RePEc:adb:adbwps:250

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  1. Nikolsko-Rzhevskyy, Alex, 2008. "Monetary Policy Evaluation in Real Time: Forward-Looking Taylor Rules Without Forward-Looking Data," MPRA Paper 11352, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  2. Angelica E. Njuguna & Stephen N. Karingi & Mwangi S. Kimenyi, 2005. "Measuring Potential Output and Output Gap and Macroeconomic Policy: The Case of Kenya," Working papers 2005-45, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
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