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Economic Dynamics, Emission Trends and the EKC Hypothesis New Evidence Using NAMEA and Provincial Panel Data for Italy

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Author Info

  • Massimiliano Mazzanti

    (University of Ferrara)

  • Anna Montini

    (University of Bologna)

  • Roberto Zoboli

    (CERIS-CNR and Catholic University of Milan)

Abstract

This paper provides new empirical evidence on delinking trends concerning emission-related indicators in Italy. We discuss methodological issues regarding the analysis of delinking and examine the related Environmental Kuznets Curves (EKC) literature to explore and assess the most value added research lines after more than a decade of intensive research in the field. The main contribution of the paper is in providing EKC evidence exploiting environmental-economic merged panel datasets at a decentralized level exploiting long time series and rich cross section heterogeneity at both sectoral and provincial level. This crucially augments the unsatisfactory outcomes deriving from cross country analyses, which are less informative for policy purposes since they provide averages for environmental-economic relationships. Two panel datasets: 1990-2000 emissions at province level; and sectoral disaggregated NAMEA emissions sources for 1990-2001 are analyzed. We find mixed evidence supporting the EKC hypothesis. Some of the pollutants in the NAMEA data, such as CO2, CH4 and CO, produce inverted-U shaped curves with coherent within range turning points. Other emission trends for the period under consideration show monotonic or even N shaped (SOX, NOX, PM10) relationship. Other emissions show relatively less robust results, with mixed evidence arising from different specifications. This partially confirms some of the criticisms directed to EKC empirical investigations. However, our analysis shows that probably there is no single EKC dynamic, but rather many EKC dynamics, differing depending on (i) period of observation; (ii) country/area; (iii) emissions/environmental pressures; (iv) sectors. Sectoral disaggregated analysis highlights that an aggregated outcome should hide some heterogeneity across different sectors. Services tend to present an inverted-N shape in most cases. Manufacturing industry shows a mix of EKC inverted- U and N shapes, depending on the emission considered. The same is true for industry (all industries, not only manufacturing): though a turning point has been experienced, N shapes may lead to increased emissions with respect to very high levels of the income driver. The analysis of provincial data shows that inverted-U shaped curves are present for some of the emissions in the SINAnet- APAT database, such as CH4, NMVOC, CO and PM10, with coherent within range turning points. Other emission trends show a monotonic relationship (CO2 and N2O), or in some cases an inverted-N shaped relationship (SOX and NOX). This kind of analysis at macro sector and/or specific sector level appear to be the most promising and robust field of future research for the assessment of EKC dynamics. National studies grounded in geographical heterogeneity, rather than regional/international analysis, and focused on sectoral trends, are more informative for policy making. The implementation of such investigations needs larger datasets than are currently available. We thus point to the need for increasing and continual effort on constructing integrated environmental/economic statistical accounts.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei in its series Working Papers with number 2007.24.

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Date of creation: Feb 2007
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Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2007.24

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Keywords: Decoupling; NAMEA Emissions; Economic Drivers; Kuznets Curve; Environmental Efficiency;

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References

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Cited by:
  1. Claudia Ghisetti & Francesco Quatraro, 2013. "Beyond the Inducement in Climate Change: Do Environmental Performances Spur Enrivornmental Technologies? A Regional Analysis of Cross-Sectoral Differences," Working Papers 2013112, University of Ferrara, Department of Economics.
  2. Claudia Ghisetti & Francesco Quatraro, 2013. "Beyond inducement in climate change: Does environmental performance spur environmental technologies?," Post-Print hal-00860045, HAL.
  3. Massimiliano Mazzanti & Anna Montini & Roberto Zoboli, 2008. "Environmental Kuznets Curves for Air Pollutant Emissions in Italy: Evidence from Environmental Accounts (NAMEA) Panel Data," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 277-301.
  4. Coderoni, Silvia & Esposti, Roberto, 2011. "Long-Term Agricultural GHG Emissions and Economic Growth: The Agricultural Environmental Kuznets Curve across Italian Regions," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114426, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
  5. Mazzanti, Massimiliano & Montini, Anna, 2010. "Embedding the drivers of emission efficiency at regional level -- Analyses of NAMEA data," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(12), pages 2457-2467, October.
  6. Claudia Ghisetti & Francesco Quatraro, 2013. "Beyond inducement in climate change: Does environmental performance spur environmental technologies?," Working Papers hal-00860045, HAL.
  7. Silvia CODERONI & Roberto ESPOSTI, 2011. "Is there a Long-Term Relationship between Agricultural GHG Emissions and Productivity Growth? The Case of Italian Agriculture," Working Papers 369, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  8. David Grover, 2012. "Knowledge versus technique in SO2-saving technological change: A comparative test using quantile regression with implications for greenhouse gas compliance," Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment Working Papers 99, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.

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