IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/erg/wpaper/1327.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A Risk-Hedging View to Refinery Capacity Investment

Author

Listed:
  • Hamed Ghoddusi

    (School of Business, Stevens Institute of Technology)

  • Franz Wirl

    (Energy Environment, Faculty of Business, Economics and Statistics, University of Vienna)

Abstract

Should oil-rich members of OPEC invest in the oil refinery industry? This is a crucial energy policy question for such economies. We offer theoretical models for a vertical integration strategy within an oil-producing economy, based on a risk-hedging view. The first model highlights the trade-off between return and risk-reduction features of upstream/downstream sectors. The dynamic model demonstrates the volatility of total budgetary revenue of each sector. Our theory-guided empirical analysis shows that though the average markup in the refining sector is significantly smaller than the profits in the upstream, downstream investment can provide some hedging value. In particular, the more stable and mean-reverting refining margins provide a partial revenue cushion when crude oil prices are low. We discuss the risk-hedging feature of the refinery industry when the crude oil market faces supply versus demand shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Hamed Ghoddusi & Franz Wirl, 2019. "A Risk-Hedging View to Refinery Capacity Investment," Working Papers 1327, Economic Research Forum, revised 21 Aug 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:1327
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://erf.org.eg/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/1327.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://bit.ly/2ZfHnyV
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frederick van der Ploeg & Anthony J. Venables, 2011. "Harnessing Windfall Revenues: Optimal Policies for Resource‐Rich Developing Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(551), pages 1-30, March.
    2. Lutz Kilian, 2017. "The Impact of the Fracking Boom on Arab Oil Producers," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 6).
    3. Léautier, Thomas-Olivier & Rochet, Jean-Charles, 2014. "On the strategic value of risk management," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 153-169.
    4. repec:dau:papers:123456789/11029 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Cherif, Reda & Hasanov, Fuad, 2013. "Oil Exporters’ Dilemma: How Much to Save and How Much to Invest," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 120-131.
    6. Lieberman, Marvin B, 1991. "Determinants of Vertical Integration: An Empirical Test," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(5), pages 451-466, September.
    7. Krane, Jim, 2015. "A refined approach: Saudi Arabia moves beyond crude," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 99-104.
    8. Carlton, Dennis W, 1979. "Vertical Integration in Competitive Markets under Uncertainty," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 189-209, March.
    9. Borensztein, Eduardo & Jeanne, Olivier & Sandri, Damiano, 2013. "Macro-hedging for commodity exporters," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 105-116.
    10. Chemla, Gilles & Touzi, Nizar & Aïd, René & Porchet, Arnaud, 2011. "Hedging and Vertical Integration in Electricity Markets," CEPR Discussion Papers 8313, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Frankel, Jeffrey A., 2010. "The Natural Resource Curse: A Survey," Scholarly Articles 4454156, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
    12. Dermot Gately, 1995. "Strategies for OPEC's Pricing and Output Decisions," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 1-38.
    13. James M. Griffin & Lawrence M. Vielhaber, 1994. "OPEC Production: The Missing Link," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 115-132.
    14. Christoph Bohringer, Knut Einar Rosendahl, and Jan Schneider, 2014. "Unilateral Climate Policy: Can OPEC Resolve the Leakage Problem?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4).
    15. Arrau, Patricio & Claessens, Stijn, 1992. "Commodity stabilization funds," Policy Research Working Paper Series 835, The World Bank.
    16. Sykuta, Michael E., 1996. "Futures trading and supply contracting in the oil refining industry," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 317-334, July.
    17. Frederick van der Ploeg & Steven Poelhekke, 2009. "Volatility and the natural resource curse," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(4), pages 727-760, October.
    18. Daniel J.A. Johansson & Christian Azar & Kristian Lindgren & Tobias A. Persson, 2009. "OPEC Strategies and Oil Rent in a Climate Conscious World," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 23-50.
    19. A.F Alhajji & David Huettner, 2000. "OPEC and World Crude Oil Markets from 1973 to 1994: Cartel, Oligopoly, or Competitive?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 31-60.
    20. Suzuki, Aya & Jarvis, Lovell S. & Sexton, Richard J., 2011. "Partial Vertical Integration, Risk Shifting, and Product Rejection in the High-Value Export Supply Chain: The Ghana Pineapple Sector," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1611-1623, September.
    21. Maslyuk, Svetlana & Smyth, Russell, 2008. "Unit root properties of crude oil spot and futures prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2591-2600, July.
    22. Holland, Stephen P., 2003. "Extraction capacity and the optimal order of extraction," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 569-588, May.
    23. Massol, Olivier & Banal-Estañol, Albert, 2014. "Export diversification through resource-based industrialization: The case of natural gas," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(3), pages 1067-1082.
    24. René Aïd & Gilles Chemla & Arnaud Porchet & Nizar Touzi, 2011. "Hedging and Vertical Integration in Electricity Markets," Post-Print hal-02304220, HAL.
    25. Alexander, Carol & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Sumawong, Anannit, 2013. "The (de)merits of minimum-variance hedging: Application to the crack spread," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 698-707.
    26. Merener, Nicolas & Steglich, Maria Eugenia, 2018. "Output Value Risk for Commodity Producers: The Uncertain Benefits of Diversification," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 322-333.
    27. Ghoddusi, Hamed & Nili, Masoud & Rastad, Mahdi, 2017. "On quota violations of OPEC members," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 410-422.
    28. Levin, Richard C., 1981. "Vertical integration and profitability in the oil industry," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 215-235, September.
    29. Antonio Cabrales & Esther Hauk, 2011. "The Quality of Political Institutions and the Curse of Natural Resources," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(551), pages 58-88, March.
    30. Steele, Henry & Daly, George, 1981. "Vertical divestiture of the US oil industry and US-OPEC relations," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 43-56, January.
    31. René Aïd & Gilles Chemla & Arnaud Porchet & Nizar Touzi, 2011. "Hedging and Vertical Integration in Electricity Markets," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(8), pages 1438-1452, August.
    32. Kyongwook Choi & Shawkat Hammoudeh, 2009. "Long Memory in Oil and Refined Products Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 97-116.
    33. Julia Devlin, 2004. "Managing Oil Price Risk in Developing Countries," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 19(1), pages 119-139.
    34. Sukcharoen, Kunlapath & Leatham, David J., 2017. "Hedging downside risk of oil refineries: A vine copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 493-507.
    35. Dierk Herzer & Nowak-Lehnmann Felicitas, 2006. "What does export diversification do for growth? An econometric analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(15), pages 1825-1838.
    36. Buehler, Stefan & Schmutzler, Armin, 2008. "Intimidating competitors -- Endogenous vertical integration and downstream investment in successive oligopoly," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 247-265, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Ghoddusi, Hamed & Moghaddam, Hussein & Wirl, Franz, 2022. "Going downstream – An economical option for oil and gas exporting countries?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    2. Mahadeva Lavan, 2014. "Why does natural resource abundance not always lead to better outcomes? Limited financial development versus political impatience," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(1), pages 1-37, January.
    3. Stuart Landon and Constance Smith, 2015. "Rule-Based Resource Revenue Stabilization Funds: A Welfare Comparison," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2).
    4. David P. Brown & David E. M. Sappington, 2022. "Vertical integration and capacity investment in the electricity sector," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 193-226, February.
    5. Ren'e Aid & Luciano Campi & Liangchen Li & Mike Ludkovski, 2020. "An Impulse-Regime Switching Game Model of Vertical Competition," Papers 2006.04382, arXiv.org.
    6. René Aïd & Luciano Campi & Liangchen Li & Mike Ludkovski, 2021. "An Impulse-Regime Switching Game Model of Vertical Competition," Dynamic Games and Applications, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 631-669, December.
    7. Downward, Anthony & Young, David & Zakeri, Golbon, 2016. "Electricity retail contracting under risk-aversion," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 251(3), pages 846-859.
    8. Karsten Neuhoff & Sophia Rüster & Sebastian Schwenen, 2015. "Power Market Design beyond 2020: Time to Revisit Key Elements?," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1456, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Keppler, Jan Horst & Quemin, Simon & Saguan, Marcelo, 2022. "Why the sustainable provision of low-carbon electricity needs hybrid markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    10. de Bragança, Gabriel Godofredo Fiuza & Daglish, Toby, 2017. "Investing in vertical integration: electricity retail market participation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 355-365.
    11. Brown, David P. & Eckert, Andrew & Olmstead, Derek E.H., 2022. "Procurement auctions for regulated retail service contracts in restructured electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    12. Gibson, Rajna & Habib, Michel A. & Ziegler, Alexandre, 2014. "Reinsurance or securitization: The case of natural catastrophe risk," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 79-100.
    13. David P. Brown & Andrew Eckert, 2018. "Analyzing the Impact of Electricity Market Structure Changes and Mergers: The Importance of Forward Commitments," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 52(1), pages 101-137, February.
    14. Paolo Falbo & Carlos Ruiz, 2021. "Joint optimization of sales-mix and generation plan for a large electricity producer," Papers 2110.02016, arXiv.org.
    15. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Couharde, Cécile & Coulibaly, Dramane & Mignon, Valérie, 2014. "Current accounts and oil price fluctuations in oil-exporting countries: The role of financial development," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 185-201.
    16. Meunier, Guy, 2013. "Risk aversion and technology mix in an electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 866-874.
    17. Russo, Marianna & Bertsch, Valentin, 2020. "A looming revolution: Implications of self-generation for the risk exposure of retailers," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    18. Stuart Landon & Constance Smith, 2010. "Government Revenue Volatility: The Case of Alberta, an Energy Dependent Economy," EERI Research Paper Series EERI_RP_2010_23, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    19. Guy Meunier, 2014. "Risk Aversion and Technology Portfolios," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 44(4), pages 347-365, June.
    20. Carpantier, J.-F. & Vermeulen, W.N., 2018. "Emergence of sovereign wealth funds," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 11(C), pages 1-21.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:erg:wpaper:1327. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sherine Ghoneim (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/erfaceg.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.