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Disentangling the bond-CDS nexus: a stress test model of the CDS market

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  • Vuillemey, Guillaume
  • Peltonen, Tuomas A.

Abstract

This paper presents a stress test model for the CDS market, with a focus on the interplay between banks’ bond and CDS holdings. The model enables the analysis of credit risk transfer mechanisms, includes features of market and liquidity risk, and allows for contagious propagation of counterparty failures. As an illustration, we calibrate the model using sovereign bond and CDS data for 65 major European banks. The model simulation shows that, in case of a sovereign credit event, banks’ losses due to direct and correlated bond exposures are significantly higher than losses due to CDS exposures. The main risk for CDS sellers is found to be sudden increases in collateral requirements on multiple correlated CDS exposures. Close-out netting considerably reduces the extent to which contagion may occur. JEL Classification: G21, H63, G15

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1599.

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Date of creation: Oct 2013
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Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131599

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Related research

Keywords: collateral; Contagion; credit default swap; credit event; liquidity risk; market risk; stress test;

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  1. Hans Degryse & Grégory Nguyen, 2007. "Interbank Exposures: An Empirical Examination of Contagion Risk in the Belgian Banking System," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 3(2), pages 123-171, June.
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  9. Virginie Coudert & Mathieu Gex, 2010. "The Credit Default Swap Market and the Settlement of Large Defaults," Working Papers 2010-17, CEPII research center.
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  11. Upper, Christian, 2011. "Simulation methods to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 111-125, August.
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  13. Gai, Prasanna & Haldane, Andrew & Kapadia, Sujit, 2011. "Complexity, concentration and contagion," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(5), pages 453-470.
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