IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/col/000093/020180.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Relación dinámica entre los Credit Default Swaps y la deuda pública. Análisis en el contexto latinoamericano

Author

Listed:
  • Jeimy Lorena Martínez Arroyo
  • Nini Johana Marín Rodríguez

Abstract

Se analiza como los Credit Default Swaps (CDS) están relacionados con el riesgo soberano en Brasil, Chile, Colombia y México, durante el periodo 2010-2019. Se estiman modelos de correlación condicional dinámica (DCC) y pruebas de causalidad de Granger. Se encuentra una tendencia general decreciente en las correlaciones de los últimos anos de la muestra, lo cual puede ser explicado por una mejoría en la calificación de deuda soberana y una caída en riesgo de inversión en Colombia, Chile y Brasil. Además, los resultados empíricos evidencian que los CDS tienen influencia en el comportamiento de los bonos de deuda pública. ****** We analyse how the Credit Default Swaps (CDS) are related to sovereign risk in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico, during the period 2010-2019. Dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) models and Granger causality tests are estimated. There is a decreasing general trend in the correlations of the last years of the sample, which can be explained by an improvement in the sovereign debt credit rating and a fall in investment risk in Colombia, Chile, and Brazil. In addition, the empirical results show that the CDS influences the behaviour of public debt bonds. ****** Analisa-se como os Credit Default Swaps (CDS) se relacionam com o risco soberano no Brasil, Chile, Colombia e Mexico, durante o periodo 2010-2019. Modelos de correlacao condicional dinamica (DCC) e testes de causalidade de Granger sao estimados. Observa-se uma tendencia decrescente geral nas correlacoes dos ultimos anos da amostra, que pode ser explicada por uma melhora no rating da divida soberana e uma queda no risco de investimento na Colombia, Chile e Brasil. Alem disso, os resultados empiricos mostram que os CDS influenciam o comportamiento dos titulos da divida publica.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeimy Lorena Martínez Arroyo & Nini Johana Marín Rodríguez, 2021. "Relación dinámica entre los Credit Default Swaps y la deuda pública. Análisis en el contexto latinoamericano," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 40(83), pages 583-608, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000093:020180
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://revistas.unal.edu.co/index.php/ceconomia/article/view/81997
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ratner, Mitchell & Chiu, Chih-Chieh (Jason), 2013. "Hedging stock sector risk with credit default swaps," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 18-25.
    2. Houweling, Patrick & Vorst, Ton, 2005. "Pricing default swaps: Empirical evidence," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1200-1225, December.
    3. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
    4. Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan & Lasse H. Pedersen & Kenneth J. Singleton, 2011. "How Sovereign Is Sovereign Credit Risk?," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(2), pages 75-103, April.
    5. Jacquier, Eric & Jarrow, Robert, 2000. "Bayesian analysis of contingent claim model error," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 94(1-2), pages 145-180.
    6. Amstad, Marlene & Remolona, Eli & Shek, Jimmy, 2016. "How do global investors differentiate between sovereign risks? The new normal versus the old," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 32-48.
    7. Chiang, Thomas C. & Jeon, Bang Nam & Li, Huimin, 2007. "Dynamic correlation analysis of financial contagion: Evidence from Asian markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 1206-1228, November.
    8. Bernardi, Enrico & Falangi, Federico & Romagnoli, Silvia, 2015. "A hierarchical copula-based world-wide valuation of sovereign risk," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 155-169.
    9. Vuillemey, Guillaume & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2015. "Disentangling the bond–CDS nexus: A stress test model of the CDS market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 32-45.
    10. Guarin, Alexander & Liu, Xiaoquan & Ng, Wing Lon, 2014. "Recovering default risk from CDS spreads with a nonlinear filter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 87-104.
    11. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    12. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    13. Nelson, Charles R & Siegel, Andrew F, 1987. "Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 60(4), pages 473-489, October.
    14. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    15. Rubia, Antonio & Sanchis-Marco, Lidia & Serrano, Pedro, 2016. "Market frictions and the pricing of sovereign credit default swaps," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 223-252.
    16. Madan, Dilip B., 2014. "Modeling and monitoring risk acceptability in markets: The case of the credit default swap market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 63-73.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Singh, Manish K. & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2021. "Quantifying sovereign risk in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 76-96.
    2. Shi, Yukun & Stasinakis, Charalampos & Xu, Yaofei & Yan, Cheng, 2022. "Market co-movement between credit default swap curves and option volatility surfaces," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    3. Hassan, M. Kabir & Ngene, Geoffrey M. & Yu, Jung-Suk, 2015. "Credit default swaps and sovereign debt markets," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 240-252.
    4. Burak Saltoglu & M. Ege Yazgan, 2012. "The Role of Regime Shifts in the Term Structure of Interest Rates: Further Evidence from an Emerging Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(S5), pages 48-63, November.
    5. Lily Y. Liu, 2017. "Estimating Loss Given Default from CDS under Weak Identification," Supervisory Research and Analysis Working Papers RPA 17-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    6. Ansgar Belke & Robert Czudaj, 2010. "Is Euro Area Money Demand (Still) Stable? Cointegrated VAR Versus Single Equation Techniques," Applied Economics Quarterly (formerly: Konjunkturpolitik), Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 56(4), pages 285-315.
    7. Niels Haldrup & Carsten P. T. Rosenskjold, 2019. "A Parametric Factor Model of the Term Structure of Mortality," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-22, March.
    8. Win Chou & Dominica Lee, 2005. "Panel Cointegration Analysis of Audit Pricing Model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 423-439, June.
    9. Shabanzadeh, Mehdi & Kenari, Reza Esfanjari & Jansouz, Parinaz & Kalashami, Mohammad Kavoosi, 2016. "Bank Credits and Investment Growth of Agricultural Sector in Iran," International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development (IJAMAD), Iranian Association of Agricultural Economics, vol. 6(1), March.
    10. Gary S. Anderson & Alena Audzeyeva, 2019. "A Coherent Framework for Predicting Emerging Market Credit Spreads with Support Vector Regression," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-074, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Adam Traczyk, 2013. "Financial integration and the term structure of interest rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(3), pages 1267-1305, December.
    12. Fernando A. Broner & Guido Lorenzoni & Sergio L. Schmukler, 2013. "Why Do Emerging Economies Borrow Short Term?," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11, pages 67-100, January.
    13. Eleni Constantinou & Avo Kazandjian & Georgios P. Kouretas & Vera Tahmazian, 2008. "Common Stochastic Trends Among The Cyprus Stock Exchange And The Ase, Lse And Nyse," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 327-349, October.
    14. Kühl, Michael, 2007. "Cointegration in the foreign exchange market and market efficiency since the introduction of the Euro: Evidence based on bivariate cointegration analyses," University of Göttingen Working Papers in Economics 68, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
    15. Rahman, Mohammad Mafizur & Mamun, Shamsul Arifeen Khan, 2016. "Energy use, international trade and economic growth nexus in Australia: New evidence from an extended growth model," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 806-816.
    16. Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2017. "Effective Exchange Rates, Current Accounts and Global Imbalances," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(3), pages 500-533, August.
    17. Diamandis, Panayiotis F., 2009. "International stock market linkages: Evidence from Latin America," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 13-30.
    18. Nidhaleddine Ben Cheikh & Christophe Rault, 2016. "The Pass‐through of Exchange Rate in the Context of the European Sovereign Debt Crisis," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(2), pages 154-166, April.
    19. Kaya, Huseyin, 2013. "Forecasting the yield curve and the role of macroeconomic information in Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 1-7.
    20. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Davide Ciferri & Alessandro Girardi, 2014. "Time-Varying Spot and Futures Oil Price Dynamics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 61(1), pages 78-97, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    credit default swaps; correlación condicional dinámica; derivados de crédito; deuda soberana; riesgo de crédito.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000093:020180. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Facultad de Ciencias Economicas Unal (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/funalco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.