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Market frictions and the pricing of sovereign credit default swaps

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  • Rubia, Antonio
  • Sanchis-Marco, Lidia
  • Serrano, Pedro

Abstract

This paper contributes to the general understanding of how sovereign CDS prices are formed by studying the information content of pricing errors generated by a non-arbitrage model. We implement a price-discrepancy measure in the spirit of the noise measure introduced by Hu et al. (2013) in the Treasury Bond market, and analyze its main determinants in panel data analysis. The main results show that sovereign CDS pricing errors are systematically related to higher bid-ask spreads. The evidence in this paper also suggests that exits of capital arbitrage during distressed periods, as measured by changes in net offsetting, can be associated to larger pricing errors in sovereign CDS from advanced economies, thereby supporting the main claims of the limit-to-arbitrage theories. These findings are robust for the most common CDS pricing models employed in the industry and different estimation techniques.

Suggested Citation

  • Rubia, Antonio & Sanchis-Marco, Lidia & Serrano, Pedro, 2016. "Market frictions and the pricing of sovereign credit default swaps," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 223-252.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:60:y:2016:i:c:p:223-252
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jimonfin.2015.04.006
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    Cited by:

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    2. Gunther Capelle-Blancard & Patricia Crifo & Marc-Arthur Diaye & Rim Oueghlissi & Bert Scholtens, 2016. "Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) performance and sovereign bond spreads: an empirical analysis of OECD countries," Working Papers hal-01401718, HAL.
    3. Benbouzid, Nadia & Leonida, Leone & Mallick, Sushanta K., 2018. "The non-monotonic impact of bank size on their default swap spreads: Cross-country evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 226-240.
    4. Singh, Manish K. & Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2021. "Quantifying sovereign risk in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 76-96.
    5. Jeimy Lorena Martínez Arroyo & Nini Johana Marín Rodríguez, 2021. "Relación dinámica entre los Credit Default Swaps y la deuda pública. Análisis en el contexto latinoamericano," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 40(83), pages 583-608, August.
    6. López-Espinosa, Germán & Moreno, Antonio & Rubia, Antonio & Valderrama, Laura, 2017. "Sovereign tail risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 174-188.
    7. Marta Gómez-Puig & Simón Sosvilla-Rivero & Manish K. Singh, 2018. "“Incorporating creditors' seniority into contingent claim models:Application to peripheral euro area countries”," IREA Working Papers 201803, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Feb 2018.
    8. Juan Ángel Lafuente & Nuria Petit & Jesús Ruiz & Pedro Serrano, 2020. "Dissecting interbank risk using basis swap spreads," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(3), pages 729-757, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit default swaps; Noise measure; Illiquidity; Capital arbitrage;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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