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Noise as Information for Illiquidity

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  • Xing Hu
  • Jun Pan
  • Jiang Wang
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    Abstract

    We propose a broad measure of liquidity for the overall financial market by exploiting its connection with the amount of arbitrage capital in the market and the potential impact on price deviations in US Treasurys. When arbitrage capital is abundant, we expect the arbitrage forces to smooth out the Treasury yield curve and keep the dispersion low. During market crises, the shortage of arbitrage capital leaves the yields to move more freely relative to the curve, resulting in more "noise.'' As such, noise in the Treasury market can be informative and we expect this information about liquidity to reflect the broad market conditions because of the central importance of the Treasury market and its low intrinsic noise — high liquidity and low credit risk. Indeed, we find that our "noise'' measure captures episodes of liquidity crises of different origins and magnitudes and is also related to other known liquidity proxies. Moreover, using it as a priced risk factor helps explain cross-sectional returns on hedge funds and currency carry trades, both known to be sensitive to the general liquidity conditions of the market.

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    File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w16468.pdf
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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16468.

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    Date of creation: Oct 2010
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    Publication status: published as “Noise as Information for Illiquidi ty,” (with Xing Hu and Jiang Wang), Journal of Finance , volume 68, pages 2223-2772, 2013.
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16468

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    Cited by:
    1. Stefania D'Amico & Thomas B. King, 2012. "Flow and stock effects of large-scale asset purchases: evidence on the importance of local supply," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    2. Adrien Verdelhan, 2012. "The Share of Systematic Variation in Bilateral Exchange Rates," 2012 Meeting Papers 763, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Michael E. Cahill & Stefania D’Amico & Canlin Li & John S. Sears, 2013. "Duration risk versus local supply channel in Treasury yields: evidence from the Federal Reserve's asset purchase announcements," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2013-35, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. D’Amico, Stefania & King, Thomas B., 2013. "Flow and stock effects of large-scale treasury purchases: Evidence on the importance of local supply," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 425-448.
    5. Filipović, Damir & Trolle, Anders B., 2013. "The term structure of interbank risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(3), pages 707-733.
    6. John H. Cochrane, 2011. "Discount Rates," NBER Working Papers 16972, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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