Has the CDS market influenced the borrowing cost of European countries during the sovereign crisis?
AbstractThis paper assesses the potential influence of the growing CDS market on the borrowing cost of sovereign states during the European sovereign crisis. We analyze the sovereign debt market to ascertain the pattern of information transmission between the CDS and corresponding bond markets. Our methodological innovation is the use of a non-linear specification rather than the linear VECM specification customarily employed. Using a panel smooth transition model during the 2008–2010 period, we find that: 1) linearity tests clearly reject the null hypothesis of a linear transmission mechanisms between the bond and the CDS markets; 2) market distress alters the mutual influence and 3) the higher the distress the more the CDS market dominates the information transmission between CDS and bond markets.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Bibliographic InfoArticle provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.
Volume (Year): 31 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443
C33; G01; G15; Sovereign credit default swaps; European sovereign crisis; Nonlinearity; Cointegration; Price discovery process;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
- G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Andrew Powell & Juan F. Martinez S., 2008. "On Emerging Economy Sovereign Spreads and Ratings," Research Department Publications 4565, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
- Roberto Blanco & Simon Brennan & Ian W. Marsh, 2005. "An Empirical Analysis of the Dynamic Relation between Investment-Grade Bonds and Credit Default Swaps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2255-2281, October.
- Stulz, Rene M., 2009.
"Credit Default Swaps and the Credit Crisis,"
Working Paper Series
2009-16, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
- John Ammer & Fang Cai, 2007. "Sovereign CDS and bond pricing dynamics in emerging markets: does the cheapest-to-deliver option matter?," International Finance Discussion Papers 912, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Laura E. Kodres & Kristian Hartelius & Kenichiro Kashiwase, 2008. "Emerging Market Spread Compression," IMF Working Papers 08/10, International Monetary Fund.
- Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2005.
"Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2213-2253, October.
- Francis A. Longstaff & Sanjay Mithal & Eric Neis, 2004. "Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit-Default Swap Market," NBER Working Papers 10418, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Amadou N. R. Sy, 2001. "Emerging Market Bond Spreads and Sovereign Credit Ratings," IMF Working Papers 01/165, International Monetary Fund.
- Houweling, Patrick & Vorst, Ton, 2005.
"Pricing default swaps: Empirical evidence,"
Journal of International Money and Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1200-1225, December.
- Sophie Béreau & Antonia Lopez Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2008.
"Nonlinear Adjustment of the Real Exchange Rate Towards its Equilibrium Value: a Panel Smooth Transition Error Correction Modelling,"
2008-23, CEPII research center.
- Béreau, Sophie & Villavicencio, Antonia López & Mignon, Valérie, 2010. "Nonlinear adjustment of the real exchange rate towards its equilibrium value: A panel smooth transition error correction modelling," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 404-416, January.
- Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2007.
"Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt,"
Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006
114, Money Macro and Finance Research Group, revised 24 Apr 2007.
- Jens Hilscher & Yves Nosbusch, 2010. "Determinants of Sovereign Risk: Macroeconomic Fundamentals and the Pricing of Sovereign Debt," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 14(2), pages 235-262.
- Coudert, V. & Gex, M., 2010. "Credit default swap and bond markets: which leads the other?," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 14, pages 161-167, July.
- Hull, John & Predescu, Mirela & White, Alan, 2004. "The relationship between credit default swap spreads, bond yields, and credit rating announcements," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2789-2811, November.
- Amadou N. R. Sy, 2003. "Rating the Rating Agencies," IMF Working Papers 03/122, International Monetary Fund.
- Gonzalo, J. & Granger, C., 1992.
"Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems,"
4, Boston University - Department of Economics.
- Gonzalo, Jesus & Granger, Clive W J, 1995. "Estimation of Common Long-Memory Components in Cointegrated Systems," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 27-35, January.
- Naohiko Baba & Masakazu Inada, 2007. "Price Discovery of Credit Spreads for Japanese Mega-Banks: Subordinated Bond and CDS," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-06, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Zlatuse Komarkova & Jitka Lesanovska & Lubos Komarek, 2013. "Analysis of Sovereign Risk Market Indicators: The Case of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(1), pages 5-24, March.
- Portes, Richard & Fouquau, Julien & Delatte, Anne-Laure, 2014.
"Nonlinearities in Sovereign Risk Pricing: The Role of CDS Index Contract,"
Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine
123456789/13143, Paris Dauphine University.
- Delatte, Anne-Laure & Fouquau, Julien & Portes, Richard, 2014. "Nonlinearities in Sovereign Risk Pricing: The Role of CDS Index Contracts," CEPR Discussion Papers 9898, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Anne-Laure Delatte & Julien Fouquau & Richard Portes, 2014. "Nonlinearities in Sovereign Risk Pricing: The Role of CDS Index Contracts," NBER Working Papers 19985, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Anne Laure Delatte, 2014. "Nonlinearities in sovereign risk pricing the role of cds index contracts," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2014-08, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- Avino, Davide & Cotter, John, 2014. "Sovereign and bank CDS spreads: two sides of the same coin?," MPRA Paper 55208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- da Silva, Paulo Pereira & Rebelo, Paulo Tomaz & Afonso, Cristina, 2013. "Tail dependence of financial stocks and CDS markets: Evidence using copula methods and simulation-based inference," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-52, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
- Vogel, Heinz-Dieter & Bannier, Christina E. & Heidorn, Thomas, 2013. "Functions and characteristics of corporate and sovereign CDS," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 203, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
- Fouquau, Julien & Delatte, Anne-Laure & Bruneau, Catherine, 2012.
"Is the European sovereign crisis self-fulfilling? Empirical evidence about the drivers of market sentiments,"
Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine
123456789/13144, Paris Dauphine University.
- Catherine Bruneau & Anne-Laure Delatte & Julien Fouquau, 2012. "Is the European sovereign crisis self-fulfilling ? Empirical evidence about the drivers of market sentiments," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2012-22, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
- John Cotter & Davide Avino, 2014. "Sovereign and bank CDS spreads: two sides of the same coin?," Working Papers 201402, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
- Óscar Arce & Sergio Mayordomo & Juan Ignacio Peña, 2012.
"Credit-Risk Valuation in the Sovereign CDS and Bonds Markets: Evidence from the Euro Area Crisis,"
Faculty Working Papers
22/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
- Arce, Oscar & Mayordomo, Sergio & Peña, Juan Ignacio, 2013. "Credit-risk valuation in the sovereign CDS and bonds markets: Evidence from the euro area crisis," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 124-145.
- Patrick Augustin, 2012. "Sovereign Credit Default Swap Premia," Working Papers 12-10, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
- Groba, Jonatan & Lafuente, Juan A. & Serrano, Pedro, 2013. "The impact of distressed economies on the EU sovereign market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2520-2532.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.