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Has the CDS market influenced the borrowing cost of European countries during the sovereign crisis?

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  • Delatte, Anne-Laure
  • Gex, Mathieu
  • López-Villavicencio, Antonia

Abstract

This paper assesses the potential influence of the growing CDS market on the borrowing cost of sovereign states during the European sovereign crisis. We analyze the sovereign debt market to ascertain the pattern of information transmission between the CDS and corresponding bond markets. Our methodological innovation is the use of a non-linear specification rather than the linear VECM specification customarily employed. Using a panel smooth transition model during the 2008–2010 period, we find that: 1) linearity tests clearly reject the null hypothesis of a linear transmission mechanisms between the bond and the CDS markets; 2) market distress alters the mutual influence and 3) the higher the distress the more the CDS market dominates the information transmission between CDS and bond markets.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 31 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 481-497

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:31:y:2012:i:3:p:481-497

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

Related research

Keywords: C33; G01; G15; Sovereign credit default swaps; European sovereign crisis; Nonlinearity; Cointegration; Price discovery process;

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References

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  15. Naohiko Baba & Masakazu Inada, 2007. "Price Discovery of Credit Spreads for Japanese Mega-Banks: Subordinated Bond and CDS," IMES Discussion Paper Series 07-E-06, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Zlatuse Komarkova & Jitka Lesanovska & Lubos Komarek, 2013. "Analysis of Sovereign Risk Market Indicators: The Case of the Czech Republic," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 63(1), pages 5-24, March.
  2. Portes, Richard & Fouquau, Julien & Delatte, Anne-Laure, 2014. "Nonlinearities in Sovereign Risk Pricing: The Role of CDS Index Contract," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/13143, Paris Dauphine University.
  3. Avino, Davide & Cotter, John, 2014. "Sovereign and bank CDS spreads: two sides of the same coin?," MPRA Paper 55208, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. da Silva, Paulo Pereira & Rebelo, Paulo Tomaz & Afonso, Cristina, 2013. "Tail dependence of financial stocks and CDS markets: Evidence using copula methods and simulation-based inference," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-52, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  5. Vogel, Heinz-Dieter & Bannier, Christina E. & Heidorn, Thomas, 2013. "Functions and characteristics of corporate and sovereign CDS," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 203, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
  6. Fouquau, Julien & Delatte, Anne-Laure & Bruneau, Catherine, 2012. "Is the European sovereign crisis self-fulfilling? Empirical evidence about the drivers of market sentiments," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/13144, Paris Dauphine University.
  7. John Cotter & Davide Avino, 2014. "Sovereign and bank CDS spreads: two sides of the same coin?," Working Papers 201402, Geary Institute, University College Dublin.
  8. Óscar Arce & Sergio Mayordomo & Juan Ignacio Peña, 2012. "Credit-Risk Valuation in the Sovereign CDS and Bonds Markets: Evidence from the Euro Area Crisis," Faculty Working Papers 22/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  9. Patrick Augustin, 2012. "Sovereign Credit Default Swap Premia," Working Papers 12-10, New York University, Leonard N. Stern School of Business, Department of Economics.
  10. Groba, Jonatan & Lafuente, Juan A. & Serrano, Pedro, 2013. "The impact of distressed economies on the EU sovereign market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(7), pages 2520-2532.

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