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Modeling and monitoring risk acceptability in markets: The case of the credit default swap market

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  • Madan, Dilip B.

Abstract

Minimal discounted distorted expectations across a range of stress levels are employed to model risk acceptability in markets. Interactions between discounting and stress levels used in measure changes are accommodated by lowering discount rates for the higher stress levels. Acceptability parameters represent a maximal and minimal discount rate, a maximal stress level and the speed of rate reduction in response to stress. An explicit model relating credit default swap (CDS) prices to default probabilities is formulated with a view to making the default risk market acceptable. Data on CDS prices and default probabilities for the six major US banks obtained from the Risk Management Institute of the National University of Singapore is employed to estimate parameters defining acceptability and the movements in market implied recovery rates. We observe that the financial crisis saw an increase in the maximal discount rate and its spread over the minimal rate along with an increase in the maximal stress level being demanded for acceptability and a stable pattern for the speed of rate adjustment through the period. The maximal rate, rate spread and stress levels have come down but with periods in the interim where they have peaked as they did in the crisis. Recovery rates have oscillated and they did fall substantially but have recovered towards 40 percent near the end of the period.

Suggested Citation

  • Madan, Dilip B., 2014. "Modeling and monitoring risk acceptability in markets: The case of the credit default swap market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 63-73.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:47:y:2014:i:c:p:63-73
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2014.05.024
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Roman V. Ivanov, 2018. "A Credit-Risk Valuation under the Variance-Gamma Asset Return," Risks, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-25, May.
    2. Matteo Michielon & Asma Khedher & Peter Spreij, 2021. "From bid-ask credit default swap quotes to risk-neutral default probabilities using distorted expectations," Papers 2108.06578, arXiv.org.
    3. Davide Radi & Vu Phuong Hoang & Gabriele Torri & Hana Dvořáčková, 2021. "A revised version of the Cathcart & El-Jahel model and its application to CDS market," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 44(2), pages 669-705, December.
    4. Jeimy Lorena Martínez Arroyo & Nini Johana Marín Rodríguez, 2021. "Relación dinámica entre los Credit Default Swaps y la deuda pública. Análisis en el contexto latinoamericano," Revista Cuadernos de Economia, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, FCE, CID, vol. 40(83), pages 583-608, August.
    5. Dilip Madan, 2015. "Asset pricing theory for two price economies," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 11(1), pages 1-35, February.
    6. Ballestra, Luca Vincenzo & Pacelli, Graziella & Radi, Davide, 2020. "Modeling CDS spreads: A comparison of some hybrid approaches," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 107-124.
    7. Jun†Tae Han & Jae†Seok Choi & Myeon†Jung Kim & Jina Jeong, 2018. "Developing a Risk Group Predictive Model for Korean Students Falling into Bad Debt," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 32(1), pages 3-14, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Separating hyperplanes; Measure changes; Minmaxvar distortion; Bid and ask prices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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