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An Explicit, Multi-Factor Credit Default Swap Pricing Model with Correlated Factors

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  • Chen, Ren-Raw
  • Cheng, Xiaolin
  • Fabozzi, Frank J.
  • Liu, Bo

Abstract

With the recent significant growth in the single-name credit default swap (CDS) market has come the need for accurate and computationally efficient models to value these instruments. While the model developed by Duffie, Pan, and Singleton (2000) can be used, the solution is numerical (solving a series of ordinary differential equations) rather than explicit. In this paper, we provide an explicit solution to the valuation of a credit default swap when the interest rate and the hazard rate are correlated by using the “change of measure†approach and solving a bivariate Riccati equation. CDS transaction data for the period 2/15/2000 through 4/8/2003 for 60 firms are used to test both the goodness of fit of the model and provide estimates of the influence of economic variables in the market for credit-risky bonds.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen, Ren-Raw & Cheng, Xiaolin & Fabozzi, Frank J. & Liu, Bo, 2008. "An Explicit, Multi-Factor Credit Default Swap Pricing Model with Correlated Factors," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(1), pages 123-160, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:43:y:2008:i:01:p:123-160_00
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    Cited by:

    1. Yalin Gündüz & Marliese Uhrig-Homburg, 2014. "Does modeling framework matter? A comparative study of structural and reduced-form models," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 39-78, April.
    2. Guarin, Alexander & Liu, Xiaoquan & Ng, Wing Lon, 2014. "Recovering default risk from CDS spreads with a nonlinear filter," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 87-104.
    3. Marco Realdon & Cheng Qin Shi, 2010. "'Extended black' sovereign credit default swap pricing model," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(12), pages 1133-1137.
    4. Madan, Dilip B., 2014. "Modeling and monitoring risk acceptability in markets: The case of the credit default swap market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 63-73.
    5. Samson Assefa, 2007. "Calibration and Pricing in a Multi-Factor Quadratic Gaussian Model," Research Paper Series 197, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    6. Samson Assefa, 2007. "Pricing of Defaultable Securities in a Multi-Factor Quadratic Gaussian Model," Research Paper Series 202, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
    7. Monfort, Alain & Renne, Jean-Paul & Roussellet, Guillaume, 2015. "A Quadratic Kalman Filter," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 187(1), pages 43-56.
    8. Shin Ichi Aihara & Arunabha Bagchi, 2010. "Identification Of Affine Term Structures From Yield Curve Data," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(02), pages 259-283.
    9. Michael R King, 2009. "Time to buy or just buying time? The market reaction to bank rescue packages," BIS Working Papers 288, Bank for International Settlements.
    10. Damiano Brigo & Mirela Predescu & Agostino Capponi, 2010. "Credit Default Swaps Liquidity modeling: A survey," Papers 1003.0889, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2010.
    11. Chen, Ren-Raw & Cheng, Xiaolin & Liu, Bo, 2008. "Estimation and evaluation of the term structure of credit default swaps: An empirical study," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 339-349, December.
    12. Yiuman Tse & John K. Wald, 2013. "Insured Uncovered Interest Parity," Working Papers 0172fin, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
    13. Kiwoong Byun & Baeho Kim & Dong Hwan Oh, 2023. "Default Clustering Risk Premium and its Cross-Market Asset Pricing Implications," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-055, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    14. Peter Christoffersen & Christian Dorion & Kris Jacobs & Lotfi Karoui, 2014. "Nonlinear Kalman Filtering in Affine Term Structure Models," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(9), pages 2248-2268, September.
    15. Marco Realdon, 2007. "A Two Factor Black-Karasinski Credit Default Swap Pricing Model (forthcoming in the Icfai Journal of Derivatives Markets, Vol IV, No 4, October 2007; all copyrights rest with the Icfai University Pres," Discussion Papers 07/25, Department of Economics, University of York.
    16. Chiarella, Carl & Fanelli, Viviana & Musti, Silvana, 2011. "Modelling the evolution of credit spreads using the Cox process within the HJM framework: A CDS option pricing model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 208(2), pages 95-108, January.
    17. Michele Leonardo Bianchi, 2012. "An empirical comparison of alternative credit default swap pricing models," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 882, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    18. Tse, Yiuman & Wald, John K., 2013. "Insured uncovered interest parity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 175-183.
    19. Nicole Thorne Jenkins & Michael D. Kimbrough & Juan Wang, 2016. "The extent of informational efficiency in the credit default swap market: evidence from post-earnings announcement returns," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 46(4), pages 725-761, May.
    20. Michele Bianchi & Frank Fabozzi, 2015. "Investigating the Performance of Non-Gaussian Stochastic Intensity Models in the Calibration of Credit Default Swap Spreads," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 46(2), pages 243-273, August.
    21. Bedendo, Mascia & Campolongo, Francesca & Joossens, Elisabeth & Saita, Francesco, 2010. "Pricing multiasset equity options: How relevant is the dependence function?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(4), pages 788-801, April.
    22. Enrico Laghi & Michele Di Marcantonio & Eugenio D'Amico, 2014. "Estimating credit default swap spreads using accounting data, market quotes and credit ratings: the European Banks Case," FINANCIAL REPORTING, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2014(2-3-4), pages 59-81.
    23. Augustin, Patrick & Subrahmanyam, Marti G. & Tang, Dragon Yongjun & Wang, Sarah Qian, 2014. "Credit Default Swaps: A Survey," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 1-196, December.
    24. Alessandro Andreoli & Luca Vincenzo Ballestra & Graziella Pacelli, 2018. "Pricing Credit Default Swaps Under Multifactor Reduced-Form Models: A Differential Quadrature Approach," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(3), pages 379-406, March.
    25. Guarin, Alexander & Liu, Xiaoquan & Ng, Wing Lon, 2011. "Enhancing credit default swap valuation with meshfree methods," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 214(3), pages 805-813, November.

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