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Contagion in the CDS Market

Author

Listed:
  • Mark Paddrik

    (Office of Financial ResearchAuthor-Name: Sriram Rajan
    Office of Financial Research)

  • H. Peyton Young

    (Office of Financial Research)

Abstract

This paper analyzes counterparty exposures in the credit default swaps market and examines the impact of severe credit shocks on the demand for variation margin, which are the payments that counterparties make to offset price changes. We employ the Federal Reserve's Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) shocks and estimate their impact on the value of CDS contracts and the variation margin owed. Large and sudden demands for variation margin may exceed a firm's ability to pay, leading some firms to delay or forego payments. These shortfalls can become amplified through the network of exposures. Of particular importance in cleared markets is the potential impact on the central counterparty clearing house. Although a central node according to conventional measures of network centrality, the CCP contributes less to contagion than do several peripheral firms that are large net sellers of CDS protection. During a credit shock these firms can suffer large shortfalls that lead to further shortfalls for their counterparties, amplifying the initial shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark Paddrik & H. Peyton Young, 2016. "Contagion in the CDS Market," Working Papers 16-12, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    • Handle: RePEc:ofr:wpaper:16-12
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Farmer, J Doyne & Kleinnijenhuis, Alissa M & Nahai-Williamson, Paul & Wetzer, Thom, 2020. "Foundations of system-wide financial stress testing with heterogeneous institutions," Bank of England working papers 861, Bank of England.
    2. Tathagata Banerjee & Zachary Feinstein, 2018. "Impact of Contingent Payments on Systemic Risk in Financial Networks," Papers 1805.08544, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2018.
    3. Office of Financial Research (ed.), . "New Public Disclosures Shed Light on Central Counterparties," Viewpoint Papers, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury, number 17-02.
    4. Wiersema, Garbrand & Kleinnijenhuis, Alissa M. & Wetzer, Thom & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2023. "Scenario-free analysis of financial stability with interacting contagion channels," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    5. Iman van Lelyveld, 2017. "The use of derivatives trade repository data: possibilities and challenges," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Data needs and Statistics compilation for macroprudential analysis, volume 46, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Morrison, Alan & Vasios, Michalis & Wilson, Mungo & Zikes, Filip, 2017. "Identifying contagion in a banking network," Bank of England working papers 642, Bank of England.
    7. Ferrara, Gerardo & Li, Xin, 2017. "Central counterparty auction design," Bank of England working papers 669, Bank of England.
    8. H Peyton Young & Mark Paddrik, 2017. "How Safe are Central Counterparties in Derivatives Markets?," Economics Series Working Papers 826, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. Mrs. Jana Bricco & Ms. TengTeng Xu, 2019. "Interconnectedness and Contagion Analysis: A Practical Framework," IMF Working Papers 2019/220, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Paul Glasserman & Qi Wu, 2018. "Persistence and Procyclicality in Margin Requirements," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(12), pages 5705-5724, December.
    11. Jin-Wook Chang, 2019. "Collateralized Debt Networks with Lender Default," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2019-083, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit default swaps; stress testing; systemic risk; financial networks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D85 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Network Formation
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation

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