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‘Too interconnected to fail’ financial network of US CDS market: Topological fragility and systemic risk

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  • Markose, Sheri
  • Giansante, Simone
  • Shaghaghi, Ali Rais

Abstract

A small segment of credit default swaps (CDS) on residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS) stand implicated in the 2007 financial crisis. The dominance of a few big players in the chains of insurance and reinsurance for CDS credit risk mitigation for banks’ assets has led to the idea of too interconnected to fail (TITF) resulting, as in the case of AIG, of a tax payer bailout. We provide an empirical reconstruction of the US CDS network based on the FDIC Call Reports for off balance sheet bank data for the 4th quarter in 2007 and 2008. The propagation of financial contagion in networks with dense clustering which reflects high concentration or localization of exposures between few participants will be identified as one that is TITF. Those that dominate in terms of network centrality and connectivity are called ‘super-spreaders’. Management of systemic risk from bank failure in uncorrelated random networks is different to those with clustering. As systemic risk of highly connected financial firms in the CDS (or any other) financial markets is not priced into their holding of capital and collateral, we design a super-spreader tax based on eigenvector centrality of the banks which can mitigate potential socialized losses.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization.

Volume (Year): 83 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 ()
Pages: 627-646

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:83:y:2012:i:3:p:627-646

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jebo

Related research

Keywords: Credit default swaps; Financial networks; Eigenvector centrality; Financial contagion; Systemic risk; Super-spreader tax;

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References

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Antoaneta Sergueiva, 2013. "Systemic Risk Identification, Modelling, Analysis, and Monitoring: An Integrated Approach," Papers 1310.6486, arXiv.org.
  2. carlos León & Ron J. Berndsen, 2013. "Modular scale-free architecture of Colombian financial networks: Evidence and challenges with financial stability in view," Borradores de Economia 799, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  3. Kartik Anand & Ben Craig & Goetz von Peter, 2014. "Filling in the Blanks: Network Structure and Interbank Contagion," Working Papers 14-26, Bank of Canada.
  4. Carlos León & Clara Machado & Miguel Sarmiento, 2014. "Identifying central bank liquidity super-spreaders in interbank funds networks," Borradores de Economia 816, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  5. M. Bernardi & L. Petrella, 2014. "Interconnected risk contributions: an heavy-tail approach to analyse US financial sectors," Papers 1401.6408, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2014.
  6. Rodrigo César de Castro Miranda & Benjamin Miranda Tabak, 2013. "Contagion Risk within Firm-Bank Bivariate Networks," Working Papers Series 322, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  7. Fischer, Thomas & Riedler, Jesper, 2013. "Prices, debt and market structure in an agent-based model of the financial market," ZEW Discussion Papers 12-045 [rev.], ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  8. Peltonen, Tuomas A. & Scheicher, Martin & Vuillemey, Guillaume, 2013. "The network structure of the CDS market and its determinants," Working Paper Series 1583, European Central Bank.
  9. Sheri M. Markose, 2012. "Systemic Risk from Global Financial Derivatives," IMF Working Papers 12/282, International Monetary Fund.
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  12. Sheri M. Markose & Bewaji Oluwasegun & Simone Giansante, 2012. "Multi-Agent Financial Network (MAFN) Model of US Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO): Regulatory Capital Arbitrage, Negative CDS Carry Trade and Systemic Risk Analysis," Economics Discussion Papers 714, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
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