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Contagion in derivatives markets

Author

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  • Paddrick, Mark
  • Rajan, Sriram
  • Young, H. Peyton

Abstract

A major credit shock can induce large intraday variation margin payments between counterparties in derivatives markets, which may force some participants to default on their payments. These payment shortfalls become amplified as they cascade through the network of exposures. Using detailed Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation data, we model the full network of exposures, shock-induced payments, initial margin collected, and liquidity buffers for about 900 firms operating in the U.S. credit default swaps market. We estimate the total amount of contagion, the marginal contribution of each firm to contagion, and the number of defaulting firms for a systemic shock to credit spreads. A novel feature of the model is that it allows for a range of behavioral responses to balance sheet stress, including delayed or partial payments. The model provides a framework for analyzing the relative effectiveness of different policy options, such as increasing margin requirements or mandating greater liquidity reserves.

Suggested Citation

  • Paddrick, Mark & Rajan, Sriram & Young, H. Peyton, 2020. "Contagion in derivatives markets," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 100868, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:100868
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    File URL: http://eprints.lse.ac.uk/100868/
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. David Aikman & Daniel Beale & Adam Brinley-Codd & Anne-Caroline Hüser & Giovanni Covi & Caterina Lepore, 2023. "Macro-Prudential Stress Test Models: A Survey," IMF Working Papers 2023/173, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Bardoscia, Marco & Ferrara, Gerardo & Vause, Nicholas & Yoganayagam, Michael, 2021. "Simulating liquidity stress in the derivatives market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Maddalena Ghio & Linda Rousova & Dilyara Salakhova & Mr. German Villegas Bauer, 2023. "Derivative Margin Calls: A New Driver of MMF Flows," IMF Working Papers 2023/061, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Barnett, William A. & Wang, Xue & Xu, Hai-Chuan & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Hierarchical contagions in the interdependent financial network," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    6. Berndsen, Ron, 2020. "Five Fundamental Questions on Central Counterparties," Other publications TiSEM 1f3bd844-92ab-4104-8f57-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    7. Shi, Qing & Sun, Xiaoqi & Jiang, Yile, 2022. "Concentrated commonalities and systemic risk in China's banking system: A contagion network approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    8. Mark Paddrik & H. Peyton Young, 2021. "Assessing the Safety of Central Counterparties," Working Papers 21-02, Office of Financial Research, US Department of the Treasury.
    9. Marco Bardoscia & Paolo Barucca & Stefano Battiston & Fabio Caccioli & Giulio Cimini & Diego Garlaschelli & Fabio Saracco & Tiziano Squartini & Guido Caldarelli, 2021. "The Physics of Financial Networks," Papers 2103.05623, arXiv.org.
    10. Mark Paddrik & Simpson Zhang, 2019. "Central Counterparty Default Waterfalls and Systemic Loss," 2019 Meeting Papers 213, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Bardoscia, Marco & Caccioli, Fabio & Gao, Haotian, 2022. "Efficiency of central clearing under liquidity stress," Bank of England working papers 1002, Bank of England.
    12. Jukonis, Audrius & Letizia, Elisa & Rousová, Linda, 2022. "The impact of derivatives collateralisation on liquidity risk: evidence from the investment fund sector," Working Paper Series 2756, European Central Bank.
    13. Jessie Jiaxu Wang & Agostino Capponi & Hongzhong Zhang, 2022. "A Theory of Collateral Requirements for Central Counterparties," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(9), pages 6993-7017, September.
    14. Inaki Aldasoro & Luitgard A M Veraart, 2022. "Systemic Risk in Markets with Multiple Central Counterparties," BIS Working Papers 1052, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Zachary Feinstein & Andreas Sojmark, 2022. "Endogenous Distress Contagion in a Dynamic Interbank Model," Papers 2211.15431, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2023.
    16. Ron Berndsen, 2021. "Fundamental questions on central counterparties: A review of the literature," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(12), pages 2009-2022, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financial networks; contagion; stress testing; credit default swaps;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance

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