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Contagion in the Interbank Market with Stochastic Loss Given Default

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  • Christoph Memmel

    (Deutsche Bundesbank)

  • Angelika Sachs

    (LMU Munich)

  • Ingrid Stein

    (Deutsche Bundesbank)

Abstract

This paper investigates contagion in the German interbank market under the assumption of a stochastic loss given default (LGD). We combine a unique data set about the LGD of interbank loans with detailed data about interbank exposures. We find that the frequency distribution of the LGD is markedly U-shaped. Our simulations show that contagion in the German interbank market may happen. For the point in time under consideration, the assumption of a stochastic LGD leads on average to a more fragile banking system than under the assumption of a constant LGD.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by International Journal of Central Banking in its journal International Journal of Central Banking.

Volume (Year): 8 (2012)
Issue (Month): 3 (September)
Pages: 177-206

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Handle: RePEc:ijc:ijcjou:y:2012:q:3:a:5

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  1. Stolz, Stéphanie Marie & Wedow, Michael, 2010. "Extraordinary measures in extraordinary times: Public measures in support of the financial sector in the EU and the United States," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2010,13, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  2. Mistrulli, Paolo Emilio, 2011. "Assessing financial contagion in the interbank market: Maximum entropy versus observed interbank lending patterns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(5), pages 1114-1127, May.
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  4. David Aikman & Piergiorgio Alessandri & Bruno Eklund & Prasanna Gai & Sujit Kapadia & Elizabeth Martin & Nada Mora & Gabriel Sterne & Matthew Willison, 2009. "Funding Liquidity Risk in a Quantitative Model of Systemic Stability," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 555, Central Bank of Chile.
  5. Larry Eisenberg & Thomas H. Noe, 2001. "Systemic Risk in Financial Systems," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(2), pages 236-249, February.
  6. Upper, Christian & Worms, Andreas, 2002. "Estimating Bilateral Exposures in the German Interbank Market: Is there a Danger of Contagion?," Discussion Paper Series 1: Economic Studies 2002,09, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
  7. Iman van Lelyveld & Franka Liedorp, 2004. "Interbank Contagion in the Dutch Banking Sector," DNB Working Papers 005, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  8. Christian Schmieder, 2006. "European Data Watch: The Deutsche Bundesbank’s large credit database (BAKIS-M and MiMiK)," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 126(4), pages 653-663.
  9. Joao A. Bastos, 2009. "Forecasting bank loans loss-given-default," CEMAPRE Working Papers 0901, Centre for Applied Mathematics and Economics (CEMAPRE), School of Economics and Management (ISEG), Technical University of Lisbon.
  10. Degryse, H.A. & Elahi, M.A. & Penas, M.F., 2009. "Cross-Border Exposures and Financial Contagion," Discussion Paper 2009-008, Tilburg University, Tilburg Law and Economic Center.
  11. Kavonius, Ilja Kristian & Castrén, Olli, 2009. "Balance Sheet Interlinkages and Macro-Financial Risk Analysis in the Euro Area," Working Paper Series 1124, European Central Bank.
  12. Dermine, J. & de Carvalho, C. Neto, 2006. "Bank loan losses-given-default: A case study," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1219-1243, April.
  13. Christoph Memmel & Ingrid Stein, 2008. "European Data Watch: The Deutsche Bundesbank’s prudential database (BAKIS)," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 128(2), pages 321-328.
  14. Upper, Christian, 2011. "Simulation methods to assess the danger of contagion in interbank markets," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 111-125, August.
  15. Juan Sole & Marco A Espinosa-Vega, 2010. "Cross-Border Financial Surveillance," IMF Working Papers 10/105, International Monetary Fund.
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Cited by:
  1. Vuillemey, Guillaume & Peltonen, Tuomas A., 2013. "Disentangling the bond-CDS nexus: a stress test model of the CDS market," Working Paper Series 1599, European Central Bank.
  2. Memmel, Christoph & Sachs, Angelika, 2013. "Contagion in the interbank market and its determinants," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 9(1), pages 46-54.
  3. Toivanen, Mervi, 2013. "Contagion in the interbank network: An epidemiological approach," Research Discussion Papers 19/2013, Bank of Finland.

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