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Oil exporters: in search of an external anchor

Author

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  • Habib, Maurizio Michael
  • Stráský, Jan

Abstract

This paper discusses the choice of an optimal external anchor for oil exporting economies, using optimum currency area criteria and simulations of a simple model of a small open economy pegging to a basket of two currencies. Oil exporting countries - in particular those of the Gulf Cooperation Council - satisfy a number of key optimum currency area criteria to adopt a peg. However, direction of trade and synchronisation of business cycle of oil exporters suggest that there is no single "ideal" external anchor among the major international currencies. Model simulations - parameterised for an oil exporting economy - indicate that a currency basket is generally preferable to a single currency peg, especially when some weight is placed by the policy maker on output stabilisation. Only when inflation becomes the only policy objective and external trade is mostly conducted in one currency that a peg to a single currency becomes optimal. JEL Classification: F31, C30, C51, C61, O24

Suggested Citation

  • Habib, Maurizio Michael & Stráský, Jan, 2008. "Oil exporters: in search of an external anchor," Working Paper Series 958, European Central Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2008958
    Note: 334027
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu//pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp958.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

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    2. Jeffrey Frankel, 2017. "The Currency-Plus-Commodity Basket; A Proposal for Exchange Rates in Oil-Exporting Countries to Accommodate Trade Shocks Automatically," CID Working Papers 333, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
    3. repec:zbw:bofitp:2011_019 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Marzovilla, Olga, 2010. "The impact of global economic imbalance on migrant workers and economies of the Gulf Cooperation Council," MPRA Paper 29466, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Zhang, Zhichao & Shi, Nan & Zhang, Xiaoli, 2011. "China’s new exchange rate regime, optimal basket currency and currency diversification," MPRA Paper 32642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Al-Abri, Almukhtar Saif, 2014. "Optimal exchange rate policy for a small oil-exporting country: A dynamic general equilibrium perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 88-98.
    7. Sokolov, Vladimir, 2010. "Bi-currency versus single-currency targeting : lessons from the Russian experience," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2010, Bank of Finland, Institute for Economies in Transition.
    8. Eman Elish, 2019. "The Determinants of Optimal Exchange Rate Regimes in High and Low Oil-Producing Countries," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 15(2), pages 97-120, December.
    9. Marzovilla, Olga & Mele, Marco, 2010. "From dollar peg to basket peg:the experience of Kuwait in view of the GCC monetary unification," MPRA Paper 21605, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Matallah, Siham, 2022. "Economic diversification and governance challenges in MENA oil exporters: A comparative analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    11. Sokolov, Vladimir, 2010. "Bi-currency versus single-currency targeting: lessons from the Russian experience," BOFIT Discussion Papers 7/2010, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    12. Serhan Cevik & Katerina Teksoz, 2014. "Hitchhiker's guide to inflation in Libya," International Journal of Economic Policy in Emerging Economies, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 7(1), pages 1-21.
    13. Almukhtar Saif Al-Abri, 2014. "Labor Market Heterogeneity and Optimal Exchange Rate Regime in Resource-Rich MENA Countries," Working Papers 844, Economic Research Forum, revised Oct 2014.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    basket; exchange rate regimes; model simulation; oil exporting countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • O24 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Trade Policy; Factor Movement; Foreign Exchange Policy

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