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On the Exchange Rate as a Nominal Anchor: The Rise and Fall of the Credibility Hypothesis

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  • GEORGE S. TAVLAS

Abstract

The credibility hypothesis, which was used to support the use of a pegged exchange rate arrangement as a nominal anchor mechanism, is based on restrictive analytical foundations that circumscribe its real world applicability. While all pegged exchange rate arrangements are subject to circumstances that can undermine the sustainability of the peg, exchange rate nominal anchor pegs are especially fragile because such arrangements introduce problems that are endogenous to that particular type of regime. The East Asian crisis is used to demonstrate the fragility of exchange rate nominal anchor pegs, while the case of Australia demonstrates how a floating currency escaped the contagion of the East Asian crisis.

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  • George S. Tavlas, 2000. "On the Exchange Rate as a Nominal Anchor: The Rise and Fall of the Credibility Hypothesis," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 76(233), pages 183-201, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:76:y:2000:i:233:p:183-201
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4932.2000.tb00016.x
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    Cited by:

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    3. Mohammad Tarequl Hasan Chowdhury & Prasad Sankar Bhattacharya & Debdulal Mallick & Mehmet Ali Ulubaşoğlu, 2015. "Persistence, Capital Account Openness, and Financial Sector Health in Exchange Rate Regime Choice," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 91(294), pages 279-299, September.
    4. Habib, Maurizio Michael & Stráský, Jan, 2008. "Oil exporters: in search of an external anchor," Working Paper Series 958, European Central Bank.
    5. Hochreiter, Eduard & Tavlas, George S., 2004. "On the road again: an essay on the optimal path to EMU for the new member states," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(7), pages 793-816, October.
    6. Dalia Grigonyté, 2003. "Impact of Currency Boards on Fiscal Policy in Central and Eastern European Countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 111-133, June.
    7. George S. Tavlas, 2003. "The Economics of Exchange‐Rate Regimes: A Review Essay," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(8), pages 1215-1246, August.
    8. Pemasiri J Gunawardana & Ramya Hewarathna, 2000. "The Asian Crisis and Australia-East Asia Trade Flows: A Modified Gravity Approach," Working Papers 2000.13, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
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