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A Small Macroeconomic Model to Support Inflation Targeting in Israel

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Author Info
Argov, Eyal
Binyamini, Alon
Elkayam, David
Rozenshtrom, Irit

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Abstract

This study presents a small New Keynesian model of Israel’s economy describing the relationships among the main variables relevant to the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. The model encompasses three structural equations––for inflation, the output gap, and the exchange rate––and an interest rate rule, that describes how the interest rate should be adjusted in order to eventually achieve the inflation target. The theory underlying the model is broadly in line with the current monetary theory prevailing in academia and central banks. The model is small, yet it includes the main channels through which the central bank’s interest rate affects inflation in a small open economy. An important advantage of a small model is its ability to describe, clearly and simply, the interrelation between the main variables that are related to the transmission mechanism of the monetary policy, while maintaining theoretical coherence. The model presented is intended to serve as an operational tool that can aid policy makers to assess the interest rate path required to achieve the inflation target, but it can also serve others interested in monitoring monetary developments or in forecasting the evolution of the relevant variables. The model can also help to focus the monetary-policy discussion and enhance the communication between the various entities, both within and outside the central bank, involved in monetary policy and its outcomes. To improve the forecasting ability of the model, in formulating the equations we tried to strike a balance between the need to maintain economic logic and the need to obtain an adequate empirical description of the relation between the relevant variables. The parameters of the model were estimated using quarterly data of Israel’s economy in the years 1992 to 2005.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 4784.

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Date of creation: Jul 2007
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:4784

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Related research
Keywords: MacroeconomicModel Inflation Targeting New Keynesian Model

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates

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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Argov, Eyal & Elkayam, David, 2007. "An Estimated New Keynesian Model for Israel," MPRA Paper 9412, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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