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Optimal reserve composition in the presence of sudden stops

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  • Beck, Roland
  • Rahbari, Ebrahim

Abstract

We analytically derive optimal central bank portfolios in a minimum variance framework with two assets and transaction demands caused by sudden stops in capital inflows. In this model, transaction demands become less important relative to traditional portfolio objectives as debt to reserve ratios decrease. We empirically estimate optimal dollar and euro shares for 23 emerging market countries and find that optimal reserve portfolios are dominated by anchor currencies and, at current debt-to-reserve ratios, introducing transaction demand has a relatively modest effect for most countries. We find that, in general, the dollar acts as a safe haven currency during sudden stops for country specific and global sudden stops, increasing the optimal share of dollar bonds in central bank portfolios. Correspondingly, our model predicts that dollar shares should decline as debt-to-reserve ratios fall, as observed in recent data. We also find that the denomination of foreign currency debt has little importance for optimal reserve portfolios.

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Bibliographic Info

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of International Money and Finance.

Volume (Year): 30 (2011)
Issue (Month): 6 (October)
Pages: 1107-1127

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jimfin:v:30:y:2011:i:6:p:1107-1127

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Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30443

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Keywords: Foreign exchange reserves Currency composition Sudden stops;

References

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  1. Philip R. Lane & Jay C. Shambaugh, 2010. "Financial Exchange Rates and International Currency Exposures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 518-40, March.
  2. Papaioannou, Elias & Portes, Richard & Siourounis, Gregorios, 2006. "Optimal currency shares in international reserves: The impact of the euro and the prospects for the dollar," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 508-547, December.
  3. Barry J. Eichengreen & Donald J. Mathieson, 2000. "The Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves," IMF Working Papers 00/131, International Monetary Fund.
  4. Maurice Obstfeld & Jay C. Shambaugh & Alan M. Taylor, 2008. "Financial Stability, the Trilemma, and International Reserves," NBER Working Papers 14217, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis-Fernando Mejia, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," NBER Working Papers 10520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  7. Ewe-Ghee Lim, 2007. "Do Reserve Portfolios Respond to Exchange Rate Changes Using a Portfolio Rebalancing Strategy? An Econometric Study Using COFER Data," IMF Working Papers 07/293, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Joshua Aizenman & Jaewoo Lee, 2008. "Financial versus Monetary Mercantilism: Long-run View of Large International Reserves Hoarding," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(5), pages 593-611, 05.
  9. Chinn, Menzie & Frankel, Jeffrey, 2005. "Will the Euro Eventually Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Reserve Currency?," Working Paper Series rwp05-064, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  10. Dani Rodrik, 2006. "The social cost of foreign exchange reserves," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(3), pages 253-266.
  11. Francis E. Warnock & Veronica Cacdac Warnock, 2006. "International Capital Flows and U.S. Interest Rates," NBER Working Papers 12560, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Michael P. Dooley & J. Saul Lizondo & Donald J. Mathieson, 1989. "The Currency Composition of Foreign Exchange Reserves," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 36(2), pages 385-434, June.
  13. Michael P. Dooley & David Folkerts-Landau & Peter Garber, 2003. "An Essay on the Revived Bretton Woods System," NBER Working Papers 9971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Roland Beck & Sebastian Weber, 2011. "Should Larger Reserve Holdings Be More Diversified?," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 415-444, December.
  15. Romain Ranciere & Olivier Jeanne, 2006. "The Optimal Level of International Reserves for Emerging Market Countries," IMF Working Papers 06/229, International Monetary Fund.
  16. Guillermo A. Calvo, 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital-Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 35-54, November.
  17. Chinn, Menzie & Frankel, Jeffrey, 2008. "The Euro May over the Next 15 Years Surpass the Dollar as Leading International Currency," Working Paper Series rwp08-016, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
  18. Alexander D. Rothenberg & Francis E. Warnock, 2006. "Sudden Flight and True Sudden Stops," NBER Working Papers 12726, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Fidora, Michael & Fratzscher, Marcel & Thimann, Christian, 2006. "Home bias in global bond and equity markets: the role of real exchange rate volatility," Working Paper Series 0685, European Central Bank.
  20. Anna Wong, 2007. "Measurement and Inference in International Reserve Diversification," Working Paper Series WP07-6, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  21. Ben-Bassat, Avraham, 1980. "The optimal composition of foreign exchange reserves," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 285-295, May.
  22. Dellas, Harris & Bang Yoo, Chin, 1991. "Reserve currency preferences of central banks: the case of Korea," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 406-419, September.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bodie, Zvi & Brière, Marie, 2013. "Sovereign Wealth and Risk Management. A New Framework for Optimal Asset Allocation of Sovereign Wealth," Economics Papers from University Paris Dauphine 123456789/7874, Paris Dauphine University.
  2. Zhang, Bin, 2011. "Is It Desirable for Asian Economies to Hold More Asian Assets in Their Foreign Exchange Reserves?—The People’s Republic of China’s Answer," ADBI Working Papers 306, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  3. Karel Brůna, 2010. "Central Bank´s Foreign Exchange Reserves Accumulation and Dynamics of Banking System Liquidity Absorption: The Case of the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2010(6), pages 723-746.
  4. repec:mcb:jmoncb:v:45:y:2013:i::p:867-890 is not listed on IDEAS
  5. Hermann Remsperger & Adalbert Winkler, 2009. "Welchen Einfluss hat der Wechselkurs auf die internationale Rolle von US-Dollar und Euro?," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 10(1), pages 21-38, 02.

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