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The Dynamics of Repeat Migration: A Markov Chain Analysis

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Author Info
Amelie Constant
Klaus F. Zimmermann

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Abstract

While the literature has established that there is substantial and highly selective return migration, the growing importance of repeat migration has been largely ignored. Using Markov chain analysis, this paper provides a modeling framework for repeated moves of migrants between the host and home countries. The Markov transition matrix between the states in two consecutive periods is parameterized and estimated using a logit specification and a large panel data with 14 waves. The analysis for Germany, the largest European immigration country, shows that more than 60% of the migrants are indeed repeat migrants. The out-migration per year is low, about 10%. Migrants are more likely to leave again early after their arrival in Germany, and when they have social and familial bonds in the home country, but less likelywhen they have a job in Germany and speak the language well. Once out-migrated from Germany, the return probability is about 80% and guided mainly by remittances and family considerations.

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File URL: http://www.diw.de/documents/publikationen/73/diw_01.c.40908.de/dp378.pdf
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Paper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 378.

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Length: 35 p.
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp378

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Related research
Keywords: RepeatMigration; Guestworkers; Qualitative Choice Models; Duration Analysis; Markov Chain Analysis;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, and Vacancies - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models
C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis
C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Statistical Decision Theory; Operations Research

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Borjas, George J & Bratsberg, Bernt, 1996. "Who Leaves? The Outmigration of the Foreign-Born," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 165-76, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Borjas, George J, 1989. "Immigrant and Emigrant Earnings: A Longitudinal Study," Economic Inquiry, Oxford University Press, vol. 27(1), pages 21-37, January.
  3. Amelie Constant & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2003. "Circular Movements and Time away from the Host Country," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 390, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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  4. Amelie Constant & Douglas S. Massey, 2003. "Self-selection, earnings, and out-migration: A longitudinal study of immigrants to Germany," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 631-653, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  5. DaVanzo, Julie, 1983. "Repeat Migration in the United States: Who Moves Back and Who Moves On?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(4), pages 552-59, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Amelie Constant & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2007. "Circular Migration: Counts of Exits and Years Away from the Host Country," IZA Discussion Papers 2999, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Constant, Amelie & Zimmermann, Klaus F, 2004. "Circular Movements and Time Away From the Host Country," CEPR Discussion Papers 4228, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Govert E. Bijwaard, 2008. "Modeling Migration Dynamics of Immigrants," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-070/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  4. Francois-Charles Wolff & Augustin de Coulon, 2005. "Immigrants at Retirement: Stay/Return or Va-et-Vient," CEP Discussion Papers dp0691, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE. [Downloadable!]
  5. Lena Nekby, 2006. "The emigration of immigrants, return vs onward migration: evidence from Sweden," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 197-226, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  6. Augustin Coulon & Matloob Piracha, 2005. "Self-selection and the performance of return migrants: the source country perspective," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 779-807, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Jennifer Hunt, 2004. "Are Migrants More Skilled than Non-Migrants? Repeat, Return and Same-Employer Migrants," NBER Working Papers 10633, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Augustin de Coulon & François-Charles Wolff, 2006. "The Location of Immigrants at Retirement: Stay/Return or ‘Va-et-Vient’?," IZA Discussion Papers 2224, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  9. Amelie Constant & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2004. "Self-Employment Dynamics across the Business Cycle: Migrants versus Natives," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 455, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
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