The Dynamics of Repeat Migration: A Markov Chain Analysis
AbstractWhile the literature has established that there is substantial and highly selective return migration, the growing importance of repeat migration has been largely ignored. Using Markov chain analysis, this paper provides a modeling framework for repeated moves of migrants between the host and home countries. The Markov transition matrix between the states in two consecutive periods is parameterized and estimated using a logit specification and a large panel data with 14 waves. The analysis for Germany, the largest European immigration country, shows that more than 60% of the migrants are indeed repeat migrants. The out-migration per year is low, about 10%. Migrants are more likely to leave again early after their arrival in Germany, and when they have social and familial bonds in the home country, but less likelywhen they have a job in Germany and speak the language well. Once out-migrated from Germany, the return probability is about 80% and guided mainly by remittances and family considerations.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its series Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin with number 378.
Length: 35 p.
Date of creation: 2003
Date of revision:
RepeatMigration; Guestworkers; Qualitative Choice Models; Duration Analysis; Markov Chain Analysis;
Other versions of this item:
- Amelie F. Constant & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2012. "The Dynamics of Repeat Migration: A Markov Chain Analysis," International Migration Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(2), pages 362-388, 06.
- Constant, Amelie F. & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2003. "The Dynamics of Repeat Migration: A Markov Chain Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 885, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Constant, Amelie & Zimmermann, Klaus F, 2003. "The Dynamics of Repeat Migration: A Markov Chain Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 4124, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
- J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
- C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
- C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies
- C44 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Operations Research; Statistical Decision Theory
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2003-11-09 (All new papers)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Constant, Amelie F. & Massey, Douglas S., 2002.
"Self-Selection, Earnings, and Out-Migration: A Longitudinal Study of Immigrants to Germany,"
IZA Discussion Papers
672, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Amelie Constant & Douglas S. Massey, 2003. "Self-selection, earnings, and out-migration: A longitudinal study of immigrants to Germany," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 631-653, November.
- George J. Borjas & Bernt Bratsberg, 1994.
"Who Leaves? The Outmigration of the Foreign-Born,"
NBER Working Papers
4913, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Amelie Constant & Klaus F. Zimmermann, 2003.
"Circular Movements and Time away from the Host Country,"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
390, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Constant, Amelie F. & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2003. "Circular Movements and Time Away from the Host Country," IZA Discussion Papers 960, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Constant, Amelie & Zimmermann, Klaus F, 2004. "Circular Movements and Time Away From the Host Country," CEPR Discussion Papers 4228, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Borjas, George J, 1989. "Immigrant and Emigrant Earnings: A Longitudinal Study," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, Western Economic Association International, vol. 27(1), pages 21-37, January.
- DaVanzo, Julie, 1983. "Repeat Migration in the United States: Who Moves Back and Who Moves On?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(4), pages 552-59, November.
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