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Labour Market Status and Migration Dynamics

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  • Bijwaard, Govert

    ()
    (NIDI - Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute)

Abstract

In this empirical paper we assess how labour market transitions and out- and repeated migration of immigrants are interrelated. We estimate a multi-state multiple spell competing risks model with four states: employed, unemployed receiving benefits, out-of-the-labour market (no benefits) and abroad. For the analysis we use data on recent labour immigrants to The Netherlands, which implies that all migrants are (self)-employed at the time of arrival. We find that many migrants leave the country after a period of no-income. Employment characteristics and the country of origin play an important role in explaining the dynamics. Microsimulations of synthetic cohorts reveal that many migrants experience unemployment spells, but ten years after arrival only a few are unemployed. Scenarios based on microsimulation indicate that the Credit Crunch will not only increase the unemployment among migrants but also departure from the country. Scenarios also indicate that an increase in the number of migrants from the EU accession countries will lead to higher labour market and migration dynamics. Finally, based on microsimulation we do not expect that the recent simplification of the entry of high income migrants will have a lasting effect, as many of those migrants leave fast.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in its series IZA Discussion Papers with number 4530.

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Length: 49 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:iza:izadps:dp4530

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Keywords: migration dynamics; labour market transitions; competing risks; immigrant assimilation;

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References

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  1. Kjetil Storesletten, 2000. "Sustaining Fiscal Policy through Immigration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(2), pages 300-323, April.
  2. Hansen, Jörgen & Lofstrom, Magnus, 1999. "Immigrant Assimilation and Welfare Participation: Do Immigrants Assimilate Into or Out-of Welfare," IZA Discussion Papers 100, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
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  13. Hill, John K., 1987. "Immigrant decisions concerning duration of stay and migratory frequency," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 221-234, February.
  14. Govert Bijwaard, 2010. "Immigrant migration dynamics model for The Netherlands," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 23(4), pages 1213-1247, September.
  15. Aslan Zorlu & Joop Hartog, 2001. "Migration and Immigrants: The Case of the Netherlands," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-042/3, Tinbergen Institute.
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  17. Tomi Kyyrä, 2009. "Marginal Effects for Competing Risks Models with Piecewise Constant Hazards," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 71(4), pages 539-565, 08.
  18. Guillermina Jasso & Mark Rosenzweig, 1982. "Estimating the emigration rates of legal immigrants using administrative and survey data: The 1971 cohort of immigrants to the United States," Demography, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 279-290, August.
  19. Bailey, Adrian J, 1993. "Migration History, Migration Behavior and Selectivity," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 27(4), pages 315-26, December.
  20. Christian Dustmann & Yoram Weiss, 2007. "Return Migration: Theory and Empirical Evidence," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0702, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  21. DaVanzo, Julie, 1983. "Repeat Migration in the United States: Who Moves Back and Who Moves On?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(4), pages 552-59, November.
  22. Barry R. Chiswick & Yinon Cohen & Tzippi Zach, 1997. "The labor market status of immigrants: Effects of the unemployment rate at arrival and duration of residence," Industrial and Labor Relations Review, ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 50(2), pages 289-303, January.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Bijwaard, Govert E. & Wahba, Jackline, 2013. "Do high-income or low-income immigrants leave faster?," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 1312, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  2. Bijwaard, Govert, 2011. "Unobserved Heterogeneity in Multiple-Spell Multiple-States Duration Models," IZA Discussion Papers 5748, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  3. Govert E. Bijwaard & Christian Schluter & Jackline Wahba, 2011. "The Impact of Labour Market Dynamics on the Return-Migration of Immigrants," Norface Discussion Paper Series 2011007, Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London.
  4. Christian Dustmann & Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2014. "Selective Outmigration and the Estimation of Immigrants’ Earnings Profiles," Norface Discussion Paper Series 2014002, Norface Research Programme on Migration, Department of Economics, University College London.
  5. Christian Dustmann & Joseph-Simon Görlach, 2014. "Selective Outmigration and the Estimation of Immigrants' Earnings Profiles," CESifo Working Paper Series 4617, CESifo Group Munich.

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